China's exports to the US are probably going to decline as a result of Donald Trump's demand for higher taxes on Chinese goods, which will benefit other economies like India.
Trump has been advocating for a 60 percent tax on imports from China and a 10–20% duty on imports from other countries.
Since the US began a trade war with China in 2018, India's transition away from China and into new manufacturing locations has probably created a market for Indian goods in the US.
Only 5% of India's $25 billion in increased exports to the US between FY19 and FY24 came from traditional goods like jewellery and medications, according to Moneycontrol research; the remaining 85% came from the emergence of new markets like cellphones.
Since Trump previously declared tariff hikes against China, India has made inroads into the US markets, although the increase was considerably slower than that of the other economies that entered the US market more forcefully.
Between 2018 and 2023, China's exports to the United States decreased by 20%.
Vietnam's and Korea's exports to the United States increased by 131% and 57%, respectively, between 2019 and 2023, while India's exports increased by 55%.
According to a study conducted by the non-profit tax policy organisation Tax Foundation, between 2018 and 2023, imports from China into the US fell by 24% in categories where a 7.5 percent tariff was applied, while imports into categories where a 25 percent tariff was applied fell by 47%.
Yet imports from China rose 6.6% in categories where tariffs were not applied. Still, compared to five years earlier, China's imports were $120 billion less.
According to a previous analysis by the Peterson Institute of International Economics, exports to the US from other countries increased by 37% between 2018 and 2022.
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