The agriculture ministry officials on Sunday said India’s wheat output for the 2025-26 crop year remains “stable and resilient despite localised damage” from unseasonal rains and hailstorms, even as an industry body projected production significantly below the government’s earlier estimate.
The Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India (RFFI) on April 24 estimated wheat production at 110.65 million tonnes for 2025-26 (July–June), slightly higher than the 109.63 million tonnes produced in 2024-25, after accounting for recent weather-related losses.
However, this figure is well below the agriculture ministry’s earlier forecast of 120.21 million tonnes, which itself was higher than the 117.94 million tonnes recorded last year.
Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra sought to narrow the gap between the estimates, saying, “While the federation has projected 110 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry had earlier estimated 120 million tonnes. The actual outcome will likely be somewhere between the two.”
In its statement, the ministry described the current wheat season as “mixed but resilient,” shaped by weather challenges as well as strong adaptive measures taken by farmers.
Wheat was sown over an estimated 33.4 million hectares this season, with no major pest or disease outbreaks reported. Early and timely sowing led to higher acreage compared to the previous year.
However, unusually high temperatures in February caused heat stress, shortening the grain-filling period and affecting yields. Later, unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms at maturity stage caused localised damage to both yield and grain quality in some regions.
The ministry said several factors are expected to offset these losses. An additional 0.6 million hectares under wheat cultivation this year is likely to help balance production shortfalls. Early sowing helped the crop avoid terminal heat stress during critical growth stages.
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A higher varietal replacement rate has also supported the adoption of climate-resilient, high-yielding seed varieties better suited to withstand heat and disease stress. Weed pressure during the crop cycle was also reported to be low.
“It is expected that adverse weather impacts will be largely offset by higher acreage, early sowing, and improved seed varieties, ensuring stable wheat output compared to 2024-25,” the ministry said.
Procurement trends from major producing states indicate strong output on the ground. In Haryana, wheat arrivals at mandis have already crossed the government procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes, with 56.13 lakh tonnes procured so far — about 9 lakh tonnes higher than the same period last year.
In Madhya Pradesh, the procurement target has been revised upward from 78 lakh tonnes to 100 lakh tonnes following a state government request, citing better-than-expected production.
Maharashtra has estimated wheat output at around 22.90 lakh tonnes for 2025-26, showing steady growth, with consistent arrivals reported from the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions.
Reiterating its stance, the ministry said that despite localised weather shocks, the overall wheat production outlook for 2025-26 remains stable, supported by higher acreage, better agronomic practices, and improved varietal adoption.
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