moody-s-pegs-india-s-gdp-growth-at-6-5-pc-for-next-fiscal

India’s economy is projected to grow at a steady rate in the current, as well the next fiscal year, as per a report by a leading ratings agency. 

In its Global Macro Outlook, Moody’s Ratings pegged India’s GDP growth for 2025 at a robust 7 per cent, and for the next year, at a better-than-average 6.5 per cent.

The agency attributed domestic demand and export diversification to the growth figures, saying the country’s apex bank’s neutral-to-easy monetary policy stance has also helped.

While India’s economic growth continues to be supported by robust infrastructure spending and solid consumption, the private sector remains cautious about business capital spending, it added.

“We expect its economy to continue to grow around 6.5 per cent in 2026 and 2027, supported by a neutral-to-easy monetary policy stance amid low inflation,” Moody’s said in its report.

 

Also Read: US trans-shipment tariff will impact ASEAN economies: Moody’s

India – touted to be the fastest-growing G-20 economy – is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent through 2027, said Moody’s, adding that real GDP growth for the 2025 calendar year is pegged at 7 per cent, higher than 6.7 per cent recorded in 2024.

Since August, 2025, the Indian exporters are facing steep 50 per cent tariffs imposed by the US on some products. Although the Centre has succeeded in redirecting exports to other countries through newly-signed free trade agreements (FTA), they couldn’t buffer the country’s loss from a drop in its US shipments by 11.9 per cent.

However, India’s overall exports climbed 6.75 per cent in September.

“International capital flows because of positive international investor sentiment have buffered external shocks”, it noted.

Global growth, too, said Moody’s, will likely remain steady-but-subdued with advanced economies growing modestly and emerging markets mostly maintaining stronger momentum.

It predicted an increased possibility of China and the US decoupling amid rising restrictions and uncertainty, but added that other major economies could continue to strengthen their relationships. 

For China, Moody’s projected the economy to grow 5 per cent in 2025, supported by government stimulus and strong exports, but expects real GDP growth to gradually slow to 4.2 per cent by 2027.

“Global real GDP growth will likely hover between 2.5 and 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, down from 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 2.9 per cent in 2024,” it said.