Indian exports to the United States fell sharply by 28.5 per cent between May and October 2025, as steep tariff increases by Washington reshaped competition in its domestic market.
According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s shipments dropped from $8.83 billion in May to $6.31 billion in October, coinciding with a succession of tariff hikes, from 10 per cent in April, to 25 per cent in early August, and a punishing 50 per cent duty by late August. Indian products are now among the most heavily taxed in the US, exceeding duties levied on goods from China (around 30 per cent) and Japan (around 15 per cent).
GTRI categorised the export impact into three broad segments.
Tariff-exempt goods, including smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products, accounted for 40.3 per cent of October shipments but still contracted 25.8 per cent, falling from $3.42 billion to $2.54 billion over the five-month period.
Uniform-tariff global commodities, iron and steel, aluminium, copper and auto components, formed 7.6 per cent of India’s exports and slipped 23.8 per cent. The think tank attributed the decline largely to weaker US industrial demand than to targeted restrictions.
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The sharpest fall was seen in labour-intensive sectors, including gems and jewellery, solar panels, textiles, garments, chemicals and seafood. These sectors, hit with 50 per cent tariffs, registered a 31.2 per cent decline, wiping out nearly $1.5 billion in export value.
India’s smartphone exports, the country’s largest product line to the US, dropped 36 per cent, from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October, despite a modest recovery in the final month. Pharmaceutical exports proved resilient, slipping only 1.6 per cent, while petroleum shipments dipped 15.5 per cent.
Compounding the tariff burden is policy friction at home. The Export Promotion Mission, announced in March 2025 and cleared on 12 November, remains non-operational, GTRI noted. It warned that delays in disbursals under the Market Access Initiative and Interest Equalisation Scheme risk weakening exporters just as they face their toughest headwinds.
The think tank urged immediate operationalisation of the mission, backed by its ₹25,060-crore outlay for 2025–26 to 2030–31. It also sought diplomatic engagement to lift a 25 per cent Russia-linked additional duty and raised concerns over US investigative protocols that, it said, bypass India’s data sovereignty norms.
GTRI argued that removing the additional levy could halve the effective duty burden from 50 per cent to 25 per cent, offering critical relief to MSMEs and labour-intensive sectors.
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