Exit polls on Wednesday projected a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and indicated a tight contest in West Bengal, while forecasting a return to power for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala.
Most pollsters predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA in Assam. Axis My India forecast 88–100 seats for the NDA in the 126-member Assembly, while People’s Pulse projected 68–72 seats. Matrize also indicated a comfortable NDA lead with 85–95 seats, well above the majority mark of 64. The Congress-led alliance was projected to trail significantly across surveys.
In Kerala, exit polls suggested a shift in power, with the UDF likely to return after a decade. Axis My India projected 78–90 seats for the UDF in the 140-member House, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) was seen securing 49–62 seats. Other pollsters echoed similar trends, though Matrize projected a narrower margin between the two fronts.
West Bengal presented a more divided picture, with varying projections across agencies. People’s Pulse forecast the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) ahead with 177–187 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while the BJP was projected to win 95–110 seats. However, Matrize and P-Marq predicted an edge for the BJP, placing it above the majority mark of 148 seats, suggesting a closely fought contest.
Also read: Bengal breaks 2021 record, hits 89.99 pc voter turnout till 5PM
In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls indicated a return of the DMK-led alliance. People’s Pulse projected 125–145 seats for the DMK alliance in the 234-member Assembly, comfortably above the halfway mark of 118. The AIADMK-BJP combine was forecast to secure 65–80 seats, while the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) was expected to make modest gains. Matrize also predicted a DMK victory, though with a narrower margin.
For Puducherry, exit polls suggested a return of the NDA government led by the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC). Axis My India projected 16–20 seats for the NDA in the 30-member Assembly, with the DMK-Congress alliance expected to win 6–8 seats.
Polling for the five Assemblies, Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry—was conducted in April, with West Bengal voting in two phases and the others in a single phase. Voter turnout was notably high across states, with Assam recording 85.38 per cent, Puducherry 89.83 per cent, Tamil Nadu 84.69 per cent and West Bengal touching 91.78 per cent in the first phase.
While exit polls offer an early indication of electoral trends, their track record has been mixed, and final outcomes often differ. The counting of votes for all five Assemblies will take place on May 4, which will determine whether the projections hold.
Follow us
