A tragic Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, has raised suspicions of being caused by a Russian missile strike. The incident, which occurred on Christmas Day, involved a flight en route from Baku to Grozny, Russia. Reports suggest the aircraft may have been "accidentally hit" by a Russian surface-to-air missile or antiaircraft fire.
The crash claimed the lives of 38 out of the 67 people onboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members. Among the 29 survivors were two young girls, aged 11 and 16.
Evidence and video footage
Experts have pointed to shrapnel-like holes in the plane’s fuselage and tail section, consistent with missile damage. Videos shared online, including one by Clash Report, revealed large and small holes in the fuselage. A video from inside the plane also showed a female passenger with apparent shrapnel injuries.
The flight was passing through an area of heightened military activity, with Ukrainian drone attacks reported near Grozny. Analysts suggest the heavily guarded Chechen capital may have mistaken the plane for a drone.
Yury Podolyaka, a Russian military blogger, and aviation expert Matt Borie both indicated the damage aligns with antiaircraft fire. Media outlets like Meduza and The Kyiv Independent also noted similarities to previous missile-related incidents.
Survivor accounts and crash details
Survivors seated in the tail section reported hearing loud explosions outside the aircraft after it was denied permission to land in Grozny. The explosions were believed to be oxygen tanks detonating mid-air.
The plane attempted to return to Kazakhstan but crashed three kilometers from Aqtau Airport, following an additional emergency, possibly involving hydraulics failure. Online videos showed the plane struggling to maintain altitude before nosediving and crashing, breaking apart on impact.
Authorities recovered the black box for analysis. While Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the crash to a bird strike, this explanation was later withdrawn. If confirmed as a missile strike, this would mark the second instance of a Russian missile downing a commercial aircraft, the first being Malaysian Airlines’ MH-17 in 2014.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged patience until the investigation concludes. Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev stated that it is too early to determine the cause. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared a national day of mourning, cancelled a planned Russia visit, and ordered a thorough investigation.
President Aliyev extended condolences to the victims’ families and emphasized worsening weather as a potential factor. His wife, Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, also expressed her grief over the tragedy.
The world watches closely as the investigation continues, with the possibility of a Russian missile being the cause adding a troubling layer to the disaster.
Also Read: 35 dead in plane crash near Kazakhstan's Aktau
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