The fate of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is hanging in the balance as the country’s Supreme Court prepares to announce a verdict in his coup trial, despite pressure from the United States.
Bolsonaro could face imprisonment of up to 40 years if convicted in a trial alleging he attempted a coup against President Lula’s government in 2022.
On Tuesday, Brazil’s Supreme Court will begin delivering its judgment after weeks of witness testimony regarding the former president’s alleged involvement in a plot to overthrow the elected government.
Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who has repeatedly clashed with Bolsonaro in the past, will summarise the evidence in the case.
Following this, the prosecution and the defence will make their closing statements before Moraes and four other judges cast their votes, one by one, to convict or acquit Bolsonaro and seven co-defendants.
In this case, a simple majority of three “yes” votes is enough to deliver a verdict. This marks the first-ever coup trial against a former leader of Brazil, a country that has seen a steady strengthening of democracy since the end of military dictatorship in 1985.
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Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro was aware of, and involved in, a plot to assassinate President Lula and the Supreme Court judge overseeing the trial, as part of an attempt to seize power.
The former head of state, who served a single term from 2019 to 2022, maintains that he is the victim of political persecution.
His position is echoed by Donald Trump, who has denounced what he called a “witch hunt” against his ally. Trump imposed a 50 per cent tariff on various Brazilian exports while the US Treasury sanctioned Judge Moraes.
Despite persistent US pressure and sanctions against Lula and Judge Moraes, these moves have done nothing to ease Bolsonaro’s predicament.
Four of the last seven occupants of Brazil’s Planalto presidential palace have been convicted, jailed, or impeached. Bolsonaro could now become the fifth.
Given the current trajectory of the proceedings, it appears increasingly likely that Bolsonaro will be convicted and could face a prison sentence of up to 40 years.