Canada’s Liberal Party has won a fourth consecutive term, marking a stunning political resurrection and a landmark victory for former central banker and political newcomer Mark Carney, as he prepares to face future challenges, including dealing with US President Donald Trump.
The Liberals are leading in 158 ridings, while the Conservatives hold 147. The Bloc Québécois leads in 25 ridings, the New Democratic Party (NDP) in 10, and the Greens in two. No seats are currently led by the People’s Party of Canada or other smaller parties. With 52 per cent of polls reporting, the Conservatives have secured 114 seats with 53.2 per cent of the popular vote, while the Liberals have won 108 seats with 50.4 per cent support. A total of 172 seats are needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Mark Carney’s journey from a crisis-era central banker to Canada’s prime minister signals a notable shift in Canadian politics. Once regarded as a calm technocrat, Carney is now on the brink of securing a full mandate to lead the country.
Assuming leadership of the Liberals after Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Carney helped steer the party away from what had seemed an inevitable Conservative victory. Although it remains uncertain whether the Liberals have won a majority, the results mark a dramatic turnaround from months of grim forecasts.
Late on Monday, the Liberals had won or were leading in enough ridings to block any other party from forming a government, according to national broadcaster CBC. Supporters at the Liberals’ election night event erupted into cheers as results from Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario were reported.
It is not yet clear if the Liberals have secured a majority. If forced into a minority, Carney’s party would need support from opposition parties to govern effectively — as it did in the last Parliament, relying on the NDP to pass key legislation.
The win represents a remarkable recovery for the Liberals, who, until recently, were facing electoral collapse. Justin Trudeau, who served nearly a decade as prime minister, saw his leadership marred by internal party feuding and a restless electorate by the end of his tenure.
By late 2024, Liberal strategists believed that their best-case scenario was to hold the Conservatives to a minority. Victory was not even considered a likely possibility.
“We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government,” former Justice Minister David Lametti told CTV. “We have turned this around thanks to Mark,” he said.
US President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric towards Canada — including threats to annex the country and impose harsh tariffs — sparked a strong nationalist backlash among Canadian voters, helping to shift momentum towards the Liberals.
“The shift in polls was absolutely without precedent,” said David Coletto, head of the polling firm Abacus. “To see the honeymoon that followed — and how support held — is also unprecedented.”
Coletto noted that the backlash against Trump’s threats, combined with Trudeau’s unpopularity, created a political environment ripe for a reset.
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had been tipped to win the election after months of favourable polling. But the party’s 25-point lead evaporated rapidly following Trump’s intervention and Carney’s ascent to leadership.
The narrow defeat is expected to trigger a period of internal reflection and possible infighting within the Conservatives as they regroup for the future.
For Carney, who called a snap election just nine days after becoming prime minister, the stakes were particularly high. Had he lost, he risked becoming Canada’s shortest-serving prime minister.
“I saw how Carney conducted himself and I felt like he was really a man who met the moment,” said Ian Laroque, a campaign volunteer from Carney’s Ottawa riding. “He wasn’t a polished politician. But he’s the kind of person we need to lead the country right now.”
Monday’s election was notable in other respects: for the first time in nearly seven decades, Canada’s two main parties — the Liberals and the Conservatives — were projected to win more than 80 per cent of the popular vote combined. Smaller parties, including the NDP and Bloc Québécois, suffered major setbacks.
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