Beijing has sought to allay concerns raised by New Delhi over the construction of a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, insisting the structure will deliver regional benefits and not jeopardise water security downstream.
India remains wary of the so-called super dam, fearing it could be weaponised by China in times of conflict, particularly as the dam lies upstream of the Brahmaputra River, which flows into the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Some Indian strategists have described the project as a “water bomb”, warning it could trigger devastating floods in the event of sudden water release or structural failure.
China’s Ministry of Water Resources, however, on Sunday asserted that its latest study suggests otherwise. It claimed the dam had improved downstream water availability, particularly during drought years. “During the hot years since 2014, the dam released more water to the regions where fears of drought were pretty high,” read the study, adding that “the flow of water increased by 50 per cent in the dry season.”
The report also claimed flood risks were reduced, with peak flows decreasing by 2 per cent. “In August, the riskiest period for flooding, water levels remained moderate,” it noted.
The findings were published on 15 May 2025 by the University of Hanoi in collaboration with China’s Water Ministry, which has been aggressively advocating the benefits of the high-altitude project in recent weeks. The Yarlung Tsangpo, which originates in Tibet and becomes the Brahmaputra in India, is one of Asia’s most significant transboundary rivers.
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Dr Zhang Jianyun, China’s dam safety chief and lead author of the study, stated: “Harsh climates, along with technological and economic challenges, aided by political factors, constrained the large-scale reservoir construction in this high-altitude region.”
While the Chinese position leans heavily on scientific modelling and data trends, experts in India remain unconvinced. Concerns have intensified over the seismic risks posed by the dam’s location. Situated on the Indo-Tibetan fault line, the region is prone to high-magnitude earthquakes. An earthquake registering just over 6 on the Richter scale, analysts fear, could prove catastrophic.
“An independent, transparent and internationally verified risk assessment is the only viable way forward,” said a water management expert in Delhi, echoing the wider demand for third-party scrutiny of Chinese infrastructure projects in ecologically sensitive zones.
The geopolitical implications of the dam extend beyond India, with Bangladesh also reliant on Brahmaputra waters for its agriculture and livelihood. International environmental groups and South Asian policy experts have flagged the absence of multilateral engagement in China’s river management strategy, pointing out that most of its decisions are unilateral.
Although Beijing continues to highlight its adherence to hydrological data-sharing agreements during flood seasons, scepticism remains rife. Officials in India insist that real-time data, structural integrity reports, and emergency protocols must be shared routinely and independently verified.
For now, the super dam remains a symbol of both strategic ambition and potential risk, balancing hydropower aspirations with regional anxieties that refuse to ebb.
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