Ten years after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled against China's expansive claims in the South China Sea, Beijing has intensified its criticism of both the ruling and the Philippines, while a coalition of countries has reaffirmed support for the tribunal's decision and the rules-based international order.
To mark the anniversary of the July 12, 2016 ruling, 14 countries—Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, New Zealand, the Philippines, Romania, Slovenia, the United Kingdom and the United States—issued a joint statement reiterating their commitment to a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. The European Union also released a separate statement backing the ruling.
The countries described the PCA award as "final, legally binding and definitive" under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), stressing that there is no legal basis for China's sweeping maritime claims based on so-called "historic rights."
China, however, again rejected the verdict. Senior Colonel Jiang Bin, spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, called the arbitration a "political farce" disguised as a legal process and said Beijing neither accepted nor recognised the award. A People's Liberation Army editorial similarly dismissed the decision as "illegal, null and void."
Despite China's claims that it seeks to resolve disputes peacefully through dialogue, critics point to a series of confrontations with Philippine vessels in disputed waters. In June 2024, a Philippine sailor lost a thumb after Chinese Coast Guard personnel boarded and damaged Philippine boats during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal. More recently, on July 20, Chinese coast guard personnel allegedly attacked Philippine Navy personnel with wooden sticks during another encounter near the same shoal.
The joint statement by the 14 nations expressed strong opposition to the use of coast guard, military and maritime militia forces to harass or intimidate lawful maritime operations, warning that such actions threaten regional peace and security.
China has also drawn criticism over new claims involving the Philippines' Batanes Islands. At an academic symposium in Guangzhou, participants argued that the islands are a natural extension of Taiwan and therefore belong to China. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. dismissed the assertion as "ludicrous."
Analysts believe the claims may serve a broader strategic objective. Vincent Kyle Parada of the Lowy Institute argued that the Batanes narrative could provide Beijing with justification for expanding its maritime activities east of the islands while increasing pressure on Taiwan and the Philippines. Located in the Luzon Strait, the Batanes Islands occupy a strategically important position between Taiwan and the Philippines and play a key role in regional security planning.
Maritime security analyst Ray Powell, Director of SeaLight, questioned why the Chinese Embassy in Manila did not publicly distance itself from the symposium's conclusions. He argued that Beijing may be allowing academics to introduce controversial territorial claims before the government formally adopts them.
Powell also defended the 2016 arbitration ruling, noting that the tribunal examined China's objections before issuing a binding decision under international law. He said the ruling invalidated China's "nine-dash line" claim and found no legal basis for its asserted historic rights in the South China Sea.
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He further criticised China's repeated calls for bilateral negotiations, arguing that Beijing has failed to uphold commitments it made under the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. Although China pledged peaceful dispute resolution and self-restraint, Powell said it later expanded artificial islands, strengthened its military presence and intensified pressure on Philippine vessels.
Observers note that while China continues to reject the ruling, it received no comparable international backing on the anniversary, unlike the Philippines, which secured broad diplomatic support from democratic nations and the European Union.
The dispute has also affected China's public image in the Philippines. A recent video by state-owned China Daily depicting the Philippines as a monkey manipulated by the United States and Japan drew widespread criticism. Teodoro said the video reflected China's disrespect toward the Filipino people and highlighted what he described as the "moral and intellectual bankruptcy" of its propaganda.
Analysts warn that despite the tribunal's legal ruling, enforcement remains difficult. They argue that the South China Sea dispute increasingly reflects strategic competition and power politics, with international law providing limited restraint in the absence of effective enforcement mechanisms.
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