The recent high-level meeting in London between BNP acting chief Tarique Rahman and Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has triggered a seismic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape, uniting a wide array of Islamic fundamentalist organisations and raising alarm bells in Indian security circles.
Intelligence agencies in both India and Bangladesh are closely monitoring the rapid mobilisation of extremist elements, fearing a possible surge in political violence, militant activity and state destabilisation in the wake of mounting tensions in Dhaka. Indian officials have expressed grave concern over the potential regional fallout, particularly for bordering states such as West Bengal and Assam.
Sources confirm that radical outfits including Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam, and the newly formed National People’s Party (NPP) have begun consolidating forces, perceiving the Yunus-Tarique dialogue as a threat to their agenda. Intelligence assessments indicate that if Yunus moves toward a political arrangement with BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), it could provoke direct confrontation from these hardline groups.
Fundamentalist groups view Tarique with suspicion, fearing a possible deal between Yunus and BNP.
On June 11, a covert meeting of radical clerics and NPP leaders was held at the residence of Mufti Munir Hossain Qasemi in Narayanganj, where a joint resolution was reportedly passed to confront both Yunus and BNP should any reconciliation attempt materialise.
Indian security agencies are also alarmed by reports of stockpiling of weapons and plans for orchestrated campus unrest across major educational institutions in Bangladesh, particularly Dhaka University. The developments come at a time when Yunus’s interim government has petitioned the Supreme Court to reopen the politically explosive August 21, 2004 grenade attack case — in which several BNP leaders were implicated — further heightening tensions.
A senior Indian intelligence officer stated, “The possibility of an internal breakdown in Bangladesh is increasing by the day. If extremist forces take control of the narrative, India could be dealing with a serious security crisis on its eastern front.”
The situation took a sharp turn after Bangladesh’s controversial “July Declaration,” which effectively introduced a transitional governance structure. The move has raised fears of institutional impunity and eroded public trust in democratic institutions. Indian analysts warn that if Bangladesh descends into chaos, it may trigger refugee flows and cross-border radicalisation, destabilising entire regions of northeast India.
In a leaked internal strategy document, the Bangladesh Army is reportedly preparing for a possible national emergency. Plans include seizing control of state and private media, placing the judiciary and key ministries under military supervision, securing the offices of top government bodies, coordinating tightly with police, paramilitary and intelligence forces and engaging political parties across ideological lines to preserve national integrity.
Another flashpoint involves the Army’s role in the July 26, 2024 Jatrabari clash, where several protesters were killed. Dr. Yunus is reportedly planning an international media campaign, with backing from Jamaat-e-Islami, to portray the military’s actions in a negative light— an effort seen as a bid to undermine the Army’s growing influence.
Security analysts in India are watching the situation with increasing unease. Indian intelligence agencies anticipate a fresh wave of protests over economic grievances like power outages, inflation and job shortages— factors that could converge with political instability to ignite widespread unrest.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs and National Security Council are believed to be intensifying diplomatic outreach to Dhaka, engaging in backchannel talks to prevent a full-blown crisis. The stakes are high— a destabilised Bangladesh not only threatens India’s eastern frontier but also risks empowering transnational extremist networks.
As the situation in Bangladesh moves from precarious to perilous, India stands at a critical juncture, balancing strategic patience with proactive diplomacy in the face of a potential regional security flashpoint.
Follow us
