With less than 48 hours left for Bangladesh’s national parliamentary elections scheduled on February 12, intelligence reports indicate that the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has emerged as the frontrunner, pushing the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to second place.
According to intelligence assessments, the JeI is projected to have secured victories in 92 of the 300 parliamentary seats and is strongly contesting in another 76 constituencies against the BNP.
Officials said the party has established a strong presence in regions such as Jessore, Bagerhat, Pabna, Sirajganj, Chapainawabganj, Rajshahi, Satkhira, and Cox’s Bazar. “Even a fortnight ago, the BNP appeared to be ahead, but the latest assessments suggest that Jamaat has moved into the lead,” an intelligence officer said.
Jamaat’s resurgence comes after the August 2024 political change that removed the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government and installed an interim administration under Mohammad Yunus. Since then, the party has expanded its grassroots network and regained political space.
In recent months, claims have circulated that Western powers, particularly the United States, were backing Jamaat in the run-up to the elections. These claims gained traction after reports about an alleged audio conversation involving an unidentified US diplomat discussing support for the party.
However, the US Embassy in Dhaka has denied favouring any particular political formation, stating that the United States would work with whichever party the Bangladeshi electorate chooses.
Intelligence sources have also claimed that Gulf-linked charities, including the Kuwait-based Revival of Islamic Heritage Society (RIHS), provided funds for building mosques and madrassas in Bangladesh, some of which were allegedly diverted to support Jamaat’s activities. There are also reports suggesting financial support from the Turkish state or quasi-government networks for organisational strengthening.
Observers point to visible changes at the party’s headquarters in Dhaka’s Moghbazar area, which has recently undergone extensive renovation. Locals say the once dilapidated building now features new interiors, furniture and a modern elevator, and is frequently visited by diplomats, foreign journalists and party workers.
Following the exit of Sheikh Hasina from power in August 2024, Jamaat has emerged as a major political force and a key rival to the BNP led by Tarique Rahman. The party is currently leading an 11-party coalition in the elections after the interim government lifted its ban and restored its registration.
Historically, Jamaat’s best electoral performance was in 1991, when it won 18 seats. It later joined the BNP-led coalition government between 2001 and 2006, with 17 seats in Parliament.
While some analysts still believe the BNP may ultimately emerge as the largest party, projections suggest that even in a worst-case scenario, Jamaat could become the principal opposition force in the next Parliament.
The party’s resurgence marks a significant turnaround after it was banned during the 17 years of Awami League rule, during which several of its top leaders were sentenced for their roles in the 1971 war crimes.
The development has sparked intense debate both within Bangladesh and internationally over the sources of the party’s renewed support and influence.
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