Early results from Canada's 2025 federal election point to a tight contest between the ruling Liberals and opposition Conservatives, with a record 7.3 million people casting ballots ahead of polling day. Voting has now closed in Atlantic Canada.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is projected to win the election and form the next government, according to Canadian public broadcaster CBC News. The Liberals are forecast to secure more seats in the 343-member House of Commons than the Conservatives, although it remains uncertain whether they will clinch an outright majority.
A party needs 172 seats to command a majority in the House of Commons.
The early counting trends mark a significant political turnaround for the Liberals. The party was widely seen as heading for defeat until US President Donald Trump’s recent threats of annexation and trade war with Canada provoked a surge of nationalist sentiment.
Trump’s remarks — including suggestions that Canada should become the 51st US state — angered Canadian voters and shifted momentum towards the governing party, placing it on course for a fourth consecutive term.
Record Turnout in Advance Voting
Polling stations opened across the country early on Tuesday, with the last scheduled to close at 10 PM EDT (7.30 AM IST). Although polls had tightened in recent weeks, initial results show the Liberals maintaining a narrow lead.
In Canada’s “first-past-the-post” electoral system, winning individual districts is more important than the overall vote count. According to Elections Canada, 7.3 million voters participated in early voting — the highest in the country's history — out of 28.9 million eligible voters.
Prime Minister Carney, a former central banker and political newcomer, has worked to distinguish his leadership from that of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
Trump's Influence on Canadian Voters
Donald Trump became a major factor in the campaign’s final days. His announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made cars, along with threats to “economically force” Canada to become the 51st state, triggered widespread patriotic backlash.
In a social media post on election day, Trump reiterated his vision. "Good luck to the Great people of Canada," he wrote, urging them to elect leadership willing to pursue closer ties with the United States.
Trump claimed Canada could halve taxes, massively expand its industries, and remove tariffs if it became part of the US. "No more artificially drawn line from many years ago," he added.
The impact of these comments appears to have galvanised support for Carney, helping the Liberals to pull ahead as counting continues.
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