A survey of over 18,000 individuals on Wednesday has indicated a potential electoral blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party, with the Opposition Labour Party anticipated to secure 403 seats – well surpassing the 326 needed for a majority.
The latest multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP) data, unveiled by YouGov, a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm headquartered in the UK follows a similar extensive poll over the weekend which also projected a setback for the Tories.
According to this survey, Labour, led by Keir Starmer, is poised to gain 201 seats while the Conservative Party, under Sunak's leadership, is predicted to plummet to a mere 155 seats – marking a loss of 210.
These findings suggest a more severe defeat for the Conservatives than that experienced under former Tory Prime Minister John Major in 1997, when Labour, led by Tony Blair, reduced them to just 165 MPs.
The YouGov analysis remarked, "These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats."
Conversely, it added, "Rishi Sunak is now heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 total of 165 seats. The coming tidal wave projected by this model would sweep away several major Conservative figures."
Among the most notable Members of Parliament at risk of losing their seats are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Science Minister Michelle Donelan, and Levelling Up Minister Michael Gove.
Other senior Tories facing uncertain prospects with voters include Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The Liberal Democrats, according to an earlier YouGov model, are projected to gain one seat, rising to 49, indicating a "significant parliamentary comeback" without substantial changes to their national vote share.
In Scotland, YouGov now predicts Labour to emerge as the largest party comfortably.
Based on the MRP model, the headline figures indicate Labour securing 41 per cent of the vote, Conservatives at 24 per cent, Liberal Democrats at 12 per cent, Greens at 7 per cent, far-right Reform UK at 12 per cent, and others at 1 per cent.
YouGov disclosed that it conducted interviews with 18,761 British adults from March 7-27, aligning with previous surveys hinting at a 1997-style outcome for the Conservatives.
Prime Minister Sunak has hinted at holding elections in the second half of the year, with January 2025 marking the outermost deadline under current law, following the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2022.
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