India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during June, which is likely to keep maximum temperatures in check across most parts of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.
At a press conference, M. Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that rainfall in June is forecasted to be more than 108 percent of the long-period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm. “During June, most regions in the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some southern parts of peninsular India, along with areas in northwest and northeast India, may experience below-normal rainfall,” Ravichandran explained.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra added that due to this anticipated abundant rainfall, most parts of India are likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures, except for several areas in northwest and northeast India. He also noted that above-normal minimum temperatures are expected over most regions, except for some parts of central India and adjoining southern peninsula, where cloud cover may keep night temperatures lower.
Looking ahead to the broader monsoon season, from June to September, India is forecasted to receive 106 percent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm. The IMD defines ‘normal’ rainfall as falling between 96 and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm. Regional rainfall predictions indicate that northwest India is likely to receive normal rainfall, while the northeast may see below-normal levels. Central India and the southern peninsular region are expected to experience above-normal rainfall.
The monsoon core zone, which includes parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and nearby areas heavily reliant on monsoon rains for agriculture, is likely to witness above-normal rainfall exceeding 106 percent of the long-period average this season.
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However, some areas such as Ladakh, adjoining parts of Himachal Pradesh, northeastern states, and sections of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha are expected to see below-normal rainfall. Isolated pockets in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may also receive less rain than usual.
The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached Kerala on May 23. The main rain-bearing system arrived in Mumbai 16 days earlier than usual, the earliest since records began in 1950. Typically, the southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11, and covers the entire country by July 8. It begins retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws fully by October 15.
Meteorologists caution that the timing of the monsoon onset does not necessarily correlate with the total seasonal rainfall. Early or late arrival in Kerala or Mumbai does not guarantee how the rest of the country will fare, as monsoon patterns are influenced by a complex mix of global, regional, and local factors. India recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall in 2024, which was 108 percent of the average. In 2023, the country received 820 mm (94.4 per cent of average), 925 mm in 2022, 870 mm in 2021, and 958 mm in 2020, according to IMD data.
The monsoon is crucial to India’s agriculture-dependent economy, supplying essential water for crops, replenishing reservoirs, and supporting drinking water supplies and hydropower generation. Agriculture sustains the livelihoods of around 42 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the country’s GDP.
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