New Delhi is on alert after intelligence reports revealed internal divisions within the Bangladeshi Army that could significantly alter the strategic dynamics along India’s eastern border, posing potential risks to national security, regional stability, and the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis.
Sources in the intelligence wings working in Bangladesh said a major policy rift has emerged within the Bangladeshi military establishment over the proposed creation of a “humanitarian corridor” for Rohingya refugees and the broader plan to designate the Bangladesh-Myanmar border as a Military Operations Zone (MOZ).
“India, a direct stakeholder in the region’s evolving security matrix, is closely monitoring developments due to their potential spillover effects on its northeastern frontier and strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal,” said an officer of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
According to reports in South Block, New Delhi, one faction of the Bangladeshi Army, comprising the Armed Forces Division (AFD) and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), is advocating for the militarisation of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Backed by a detailed policy paper, this group seeks full military control of the frontier in response to increasing instability in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and the strain placed on Bangladesh’s Border Guard (BGB) due to the continued Rohingya refugee influx.
The proposed MOZ would involve deploying specialised military units supported by the Navy and Air Force for real-time surveillance using UAVs, satellite data and radar systems. The document even suggests a “shoot-on-sight” directive against elements like the Arakan Army, seen as a direct threat to Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
“However, a competing bloc within the Bangladeshi military, led by General Waker-uz-Zaman and several senior commanders, has expressed deep reservations. This camp warns that the militarised approach may be a miscalculation influenced by external actors, especially the United States (US), which they allege is covertly encouraging Bangladesh to support anti-junta resistance groups like the Arakan Army and various People's Defence Forces (PDFs) in Myanmar,” said the officer..
From an Indian perspective, such military adventurism on the part of Dhaka could destabilise the entire eastern corridor, affecting cross-border security in the sensitive Northeast. “We are particularly concerned that an escalation in Rakhine could lead to fresh refugee flows into the region, exacerbate arms and narcotics trafficking and embolden insurgent networks along the porous Indo-Bangladeshi border,” said the officer.
Moreover, the suggestion that U.S. involvement may be catalysing these developments places India in a delicate position. “India maintains a strategic balancing act in the region — engaging with Myanmar’s military regime for security cooperation, while being mindful of humanitarian concerns and regional power dynamics. A sudden militarisation of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border could complicate this calculus and risk drawing India into a wider geopolitical contest involving China, Russia and the U.S,” said another MEA official.
China’s influence in Myanmar, particularly in infrastructure and energy projects in Rakhine, adds another layer of complexity. Both New Delhi and Beijing would likely oppose any scenario that invites foreign military or intelligence agencies to gain a foothold in the region under the guise of humanitarian operations.
Indian security analysts also fear that if the Bangladesh military takes unilateral steps without multilateral coordination, it could open the door for proxy conflicts that erode regional trust and cooperation mechanisms such as BIMSTEC or ASEAN-India platforms.
“In short, as Dhaka weighs militarising its border with Myanmar, India must recalibrate its diplomatic engagement to ensure that regional stability is not undermined by an internal rift within a neighbouring army — one that risks pulling the subcontinent into a broader contest of influence and control,” said the official.
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