With the arrival of El Niño in India, fears of a deficit monsoon are growing stronger. Recent satellite imagery released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows monsoon cloud formations moving from the Bay of Bengal region towards Myanmar, Thailand, parts of Northeast India, Bhutan, and into China. Whilst the extreme heat has subsided slightly across northern India, monsoon rain continues to elude the region, though intermittent showers are expected over the coming days. The southern and eastern parts of the country have received some initial downpours, but overall, India faces the prospect of a weak monsoon. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that rainfed kharif crops, including crucial staples like rice and maize, could face significant stress as a result.
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall for parts of the Northeast and eastern India, thunderstorms over Delhi and its surrounding regions, and hot, humid conditions across western India. Widespread rainfall is projected across the Northeast until June 21, with particularly heavy downpours expected over Arunachal Pradesh from June 18 to 21, and over Assam and Meghalaya from June 17 to 21. Heavy rain is also anticipated across parts of Bihar and West Bengal during the week. Conditions remain favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance further into additional areas of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Chhattisgarh over the next four to five days.
Mumbai and its suburbs are expected to experience partly cloudy skies alongside hot and humid conditions over the next 48 hours, with the meteorological department predicting light rain during the late-night and early-morning hours. Maximum temperatures in the city are likely to hover around 35°C, whilst minimums should remain between 29°C and 30°C. Across the wider Maharashtra region, light to moderate rainfall and thundershowers are expected in parts of Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada throughout the week, though hot and humid weather will persist in these areas until June 17.
Delhi is set to experience partly cloudy skies on Tuesday, accompanied by light rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds reaching speeds of up to 50 km/h, with gusts of up to 60 km/h during the afternoon and evening. The capital’s maximum temperature is expected to stay between 38°C and 40°C initially, before gradually climbing to 42°C by June 18. Dust storms and strong winds are also forecast for parts of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan, with scattered rainfall expected across Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh during the week.
The weather office has issued warnings for thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds across several northwestern states, with severe thundersqualls of up to 80 km/h potentially hitting parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi on June 16. Meanwhile, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Telangana are preparing for widespread rainfall this week. Heavy downpours are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal until June 18, while Kerala and Mahe may see isolated heavy showers on June 16. Strong surface winds are also expected over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema through to June 19. Conversely, heatwave conditions are predicted to persist in isolated pockets of Telangana on June 16 and across Vidarbha on June 16 and 17, as northwest India faces a gradual temperature rise of up to four degrees Celsius by mid-week.
Also read: India likely to see weaker monsoon in 2026 due to El Niño
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