India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This forecast has raised expectations of a good harvest and offers a boost to the country's agriculture-based economy.
The monsoon season, which stretches from June to September, is vital for the country’s farmers, as around 42 per cent of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.
A strong monsoon not only benefits crop production but also helps in replenishing reservoirs crucial for drinking water and power generation.
Speaking at a press conference, M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that cumulative rainfall is expected to be around 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm, with a margin of error of five per cent.
The IMD noted that while large parts of Tamil Nadu and the northeastern region are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, rain-deficient areas such as Marathwada and parts of Telangana are likely to experience above-normal showers.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra elaborated on the forecast, stating that there is a 30 per cent probability of normal rainfall, a 33 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall, and a 26 per cent chance of excess precipitation during the season.
He also mentioned that two global factors influencing the monsoon will have a neutral impact, while one is expected to be positive.
According to IMD definitions, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average is considered 'normal', while rainfall above 105 per cent is regarded as 'above normal'. Anything over 110 per cent qualifies as 'excess' rainfall.
Although the overall forecast is promising, parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and the northeastern states may receive below-normal rainfall. In contrast, key agricultural states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are likely to enjoy normal to above-normal rainfall. These regions form the core monsoon zone and rely heavily on rain-fed farming.
The forecast also comes at a time when many parts of India are already reeling under intense heat. The April to June period is expected to see a higher number of heatwave days, which could strain power grids and cause water shortages in several areas.
While the monsoon outlook brings relief, experts caution that normal cumulative rainfall does not ensure even distribution across time and geography. Climate change continues to disrupt traditional patterns, increasing the unpredictability of rainfall.
Scientists note a trend of fewer rainy days but more instances of heavy rainfall, which has led to more frequent flooding and droughts in recent years.
Nonetheless, this optimistic monsoon forecast is a welcome sign for farmers, policymakers and the economy at large. The monsoon's performance will be closely watched in the coming months as the country prepares for the agricultural season ahead.
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