India heads into September with the prospect of a wetter-than-usual close to the monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast, raising concerns over fresh rounds of floods and landslides across vulnerable regions.
The agency said the country is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in September 2025, exceeding 109 per cent of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. Most regions are set to record normal to surplus precipitation, though parts of the northeast and east, southern peninsular districts and pockets of northwest India may witness below-average rain.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that the intensity of downpours could prove disruptive. “Heavy rainfall may trigger landslides and flash floods in Uttarakhand in September and could disrupt normal life in south Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan,” he said on Sunday. Warning of cascading consequences, he added, “Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means many rivers will be flooded and it will impact cities and towns downstream. So, we should keep this in mind.”
The agency also flagged concerns for the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi in Chhattisgarh, where excess flows may stress downstream states.
Data suggest a discernible rise in September rainfall since the 1980s, although lean years such as 1986, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2015 and 2019 remain exceptions. The IMD further predicted that while maximum temperatures will stay normal to below normal across much of west-central, northwest and southern India, heat anomalies are likely in the east, northeast, western coast and parts of northwest India.
The monsoon has already proved punishing. India recorded 743.1 mm of rain between June 1 and August 31, around six per cent above the long-period average. June brought nine per cent excess rain, July five per cent above par, and August another 5.2 per cent surplus.
Also read: Northwest India records wettest August in 23 years: IMD
The impact was most visible in northwest India, where August rainfall reached 265 mm — the highest for the month since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901. Cumulatively, the region received 614.2 mm from June to August, nearly 27 per cent above normal. The southern peninsula too logged extraordinary figures, recording 250.6 mm in August, 31 per cent above average, its third highest tally since 2001.
The surplus coincided with severe weather disasters. Punjab endured its worst flooding in decades, while cloudbursts and flash floods wreaked havoc in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir. Washed-out bridges, road collapses and swollen rivers displaced lakhs and destroyed farmland across wide swathes.
Mohapatra attributed the extreme events to an unusual alignment of systems. Between July 28 and August 14, active western disturbances caused heavy rainfall in the western Himalayas and adjoining plains, leading to catastrophic flooding in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and a flash flood in Uttarkashi on 5 August.
The monsoon reintensified from mid-August with four successive low-pressure systems sustaining activity for 15 days. Between 21 and 27 August, successive western disturbances and strong monsoonal winds brought exceptionally heavy rainfall to Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and east Rajasthan. Major landslides paralysed Katra, while floods ravaged Jammu, Punjab and parts of Rajasthan. Other pockets, including Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Telangana, also reported record-breaking downpours.
“The events were driven by the slow movement of two successive very active western disturbances, interaction with remnants of monsoonal low-pressure systems, strong southerly winds with moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and formation of two low-pressure systems over north Bay of Bengal and their movement across central India,” Mohapatra explained.
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