Use or misuse of power for winning the Ludhiana West assembly by-election aside, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party has emerged as the central political force in Punjab; at least as of now, although there is the anti-incumbency factor as well.
This is the reason why the entire opposition comprising the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal seemed to act in unison against the arrest of Bikram Singh Majithia in a case related to alleged disproportionate assets. Even someone like Sukhpal Singh Khaira, a diehard critic of the Akalis, Majithia in particular, came to his defence when he was arrested.
Even former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi also criticised his arrest although it was during his chief ministership that a case under NDPS Act was registered against Majithia.
BJP leadership, including the state party chief Sunil Jakhar and national general secretary Tarun Chugh, also criticised Majithia’s arrest by the AAP government.
While the opposition political parties were unanimous in standing by Majithia and criticising the AAP government, opinion remained divided on social media. A large number of people criticised the arrest, but also a considerable number of people did support the government.
However, given the massive presence of the AAP on social media — in fact, it has a complete hegemony in using social media platforms over others — it cannot be necessarily the representative opinion.
Also read: Kunwar Vijay Pratap: AAP shows door to one time poster boy
The reason the entire opposition rallied behind Majithia is quite understandable. The AAP has become the central force in Punjab’s politics. AAP has targeted and made inroads into every section and segment of society. It is something like the Congress, which, so far, had uniform presence all over, across all segments.
Whether it is the peasantry in the countryside, the marginalised sections of the society like the SCs or the urban middle class, Congress has had a support base everywhere. This is not the case with the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP. While Akali Dal has its dominant presence in the countryside, the BJP has in the urban areas. An alliance between the two was and will always be formidable.
The AAP has managed to make deep inroads among every section, be it the countryside peasantry or the urban middle class and also the marginalised sections of the society. It does retain its hold across all sections. And this combination across all the sections is always a formidable one.
The party’s victory in Ludhiana West assembly by-election was no doubt due to the government’s influence, but not only because of it. The party candidate Sanjeev Arora actually appealed to the urban middle class, the same section the Congress and the BJP mainly targeted in the urban areas. And it managed to get their votes. Had the urban middle class not voted for the AAP in Ludhiana West, it would not have been able to win the by-election.
The AAP got about 20 per cent votes in the 2024 General Elections and jumped to 39 per cent in the by-election, almost double the figure. Discounting the by-election factor where the government has an edge, the AAP still remained ahead of the BJP and the Congress. The AAP apparently managed to take away the “swing” voters, who in 2024 had voted for the BJP, because of Narendra Modi and the Ram Temple.
Also read: Majithia’s arrest unites warring opposition against AAP
This sounded something similar to Delhi, when the AAP would win the assembly elections within months of losing the parliamentary elections, before the 2025 assembly elections, when it lost. This was probably because of anti-incumbency after being in power for 13 long years in Delhi, and also due to its leaders facing corruption charges and having been to jail also.
AAP’s steadfastness in Punjab should be of concern to the entire opposition, particularly the Congress. The grand old party is already faced with a strong challenge in urban areas where its traditional supporters are finding traction in the BJP and if the AAP also gains ground, the Congress will have to worry a lot. Unlike the BJP, the Congress does not have any significant option of any alliance with any party. Its only option remains the Bahujan Samaj Party, which is a completely spent force in Punjab, like everywhere else.
If the Akalis and the BJP reunite ahead of 2027, it will be more worrying for the Congress than the ruling AAP as it will be a considerable disadvantage to the former. Given the trends from the parliamentary results and the recent Ludhiana West by-poll results, an alliance between the Akalis and the BJP looks like a stronger possibility now than in the past. There are other factors also, like not letting the moderate Akali voices get marginalised by the radicals.
Also read: Post harsh lessons, Cong cracks whip in Punjab
In the entire scenario, right now, the ruling AAP appears to be in an advantageous position. If it is able to maintain the “central position”, making it like “the AAP versus the rest”, it can translate that to electoral advantage and that will be quite challenging for the entire opposition.
But again that alone will not be enough for the AAP to sail through 2027. It will need to address the aspirations and expectations it had raised when it came to power. Disillusionment of leaders like Kunwar Vijay Pratap Singh, known for his incorruptible and scrupulous honesty all through his career in police before joining politics, should be a cause of concern for the party.
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