The Aam Aadmi Party has formally parted ways with the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). For the first time, the AAP did not attend the INDIA bloc meeting held virtually on Saturday. Senior AAP leader Sanjay Singh had announced a day in advance that his party was no longer a part of the INDIA bloc, saying it was mainly constituted for the 2024 General Elections. He had blamed the Congress for not being able to lead the bloc properly.
Singh was right. The INDIA bloc parties were those opposed to the Bharatiya Janata Party and had come together to prevent it from winning the third General Elections, without any ideological coherence. The BJP still won, although it fell short of an absolute majority of its own by 32 seats. The party led National Democratic Alliance managed to form the government for the third consecutive term.
The INDIA bloc still exists. Twenty-four party leaders/ representatives participated in the virtual meeting held ahead of the Monsoon Session that begins on Monday. The AAP was the prominent absentee.
The AAP has issues with the Congress, particularly in Punjab, the only state the party is in power. In Punjab the AAP is in direct conflict with the Congress, the principal opposition party there. In fact, even during the 2024 General Elections, when the AAP was very much part of the INDIA bloc, and had shared seats with the Congress in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat, the two parties fought against each other in Punjab. While the Congress won 7 of the 13 seats, AAP could win just three.
It was strong resistance put up by the Punjab Congress leaders against an alliance in the state. And it worked for the party there and it emerged as the winner by grabbing 7 of the 13 seats.
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In fact, it was again a strong opposition, mainly by the Punjab Congress leaders with due support from Delhi leaders, which prevented the AAP-Congress alliance in the Delhi assembly elections. Punjab Congress leaders argued that to weaken the AAP, it was important that it lost Delhi. For the Punjab Congress leaders, BJP winning Delhi was immaterial since the party (the BJP) has a very limited scope in Punjab.
The Punjab Congress strategy worked and the AAP lost Delhi, including its top leaders like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyander Jain and others losing their own seats. This was a real setback for the AAP, which the party does not appear to have forgotten.
The AAP will again be pitched in an almost direct fight against the Congress, the principal challenger in Punjab. The assembly elections in Punjab are due in early 2027. Effectively there is little over a year left for those elections. Being seen in alliance with the Congress at the national level and then fighting against it in the state elections would obviously put it in a politically awkward position.
The INDIA bloc in any case has never been an ideologically coherent group. The Trinamool Congress and the CPM also fought against the Congress in West Bengal and Kerala respectively during the 2024 General Elections. And they are going to fight against the party again in 2026 when both the states are going for assembly elections.
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Recently, Rahul Gandhi in Kerala bracketed the RSS and the CPM together, saying he fought both ideologically as the two parties, according to him, lacked empathy. Like in Punjab Congress is directly placed in fight against the AAP, in Kerala the Congress led UDF is in the direct fight against the ruling CPM led LDF.
The INDIA bloc right now, primarily consists of, besides the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the DMK, the Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena led by Udhav Thackeray. Although the ruling National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir is still a part of the INDIA bloc and fought the 2024 assembly elections in alliance with the Congress, the party (Congress) is not part of the government there. NC leader and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has tried to draw a balance between the Central government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in particular, and the INDIA bloc.
The only place the INDIA bloc may remain effective to some extent will be the parliament. That serves the Congress’ purpose. Of its own, it does not have adequate numbers. The party has only 100 members in a house of 542. With the INDIA bloc partners it comes to 233. This makes the INDIA bloc a strong and an effective opposition irrespective of the inherent contradictions it has been suffering from.
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On the other hand, the AAP may also be looking forward to creating space for a third alternative to the BJP and the Congress. There is a strong case for such a grouping that seeks to maintain an equal distance from both the BJP as well as the Congress. Such a formation used to be described as the ‘Third Front’ in late 1980s and early 1990s, although it could hardly survive without aligning with the Congress or the BJP from time to time.
While in 1989 it aligned with the BJP, in 1996, it aligned with the Congress. On both occasions the BJP and the Congress lent only outside support to the front to form the government, which understandably could not last for two years even on both the occasions.
The AAP, for sure, does not want to get overshadowed by the Congress in the INDIA bloc and has hence tried to retain its “separate and independent” position in the opposition space. That will serve its purpose better in the long term.
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