The Bharatiya Janata Party may not have fared well in the four by-elections in Punjab, but the ruling Aam Aadmi Party does not seem to take the saffron party’s future challenge in 2027 very lightly.
The AAP has appointed Sunam MLA and a minister in the Punjab government, Aman Arora as the state president. The appointment was necessitated after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann relinquished the position to focus on government.
And not just the 2027 assembly elections, which are still over two years away, the AAP’s immediate concern and challenge is the municipal corporation elections in five Hindu-dominated cities, where the AAP fared very badly during the recently concluded parliamentary elections.
BJP polled about 18.5 per cent votes in the 2024 General Elections in Punjab, although it could not win any of the 13 parliamentary constituencies. But it proved its dominance in Hindu majority urban areas, where the vote share has been more than 30 per cent against the overall 18.5 per cent across the state.
Compared to the BJP, the AAP fared very badly in the urban areas during the 2024 General Elections. In most of the places, the AAP came in third place while the BJP and the Congress shared first and second places in different urban constituencies.
The AAP still managed to win three parliamentary constituencies.
The AAP knows very well that the by-elections are not a real indicator of the ground situation, while the General Elections are more or less indicative of the actual pulse and mood of the people.
Ahead of the 2027 assembly elections, the AAP is faced with an immediate challenge of the local bodies’ elections in five municipal corporations of Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Amritsar, Patiala and Bathinda. In all these places, the AAP performance in the parliamentary elections was dismal.
While Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Amritsar and Patiala constituencies were won by the Congress, Bathinda was won by the Shiromani Akali Dal-Badal.
Traditionally the ruling party in the state has been victorious in municipal corporation elections in the state. It is quite rare that the ruling party has ever lost the municipal elections in the state.
The municipal elections are conducted by the State Election Commission, with local administration including the bureaucracy and the police under direct command and control of the state government only, unlike in the assembly or parliamentary elections when it is the Election Commission of India, which is in control of things.
However, the scope of manipulations is quite limited, since the municipal elections are held in urban areas and more so in the age of social media and smart phones, when every event gets instantly recorded and circulated within no time.
Moreover, the AAP will be faced with a tough challenge from the Congress, the BJP and in all probability the Shiromani Akali Dal also, all of whom will not let it go so easily.
That is why Arora’s role as the state president is very important and will be put to the immediate test across the state. The five cities going to the municipal elections are the “political showwindows” of the state. The outcome of the results will be deemed and interpreted as a “referendum” on the state government.
If the AAP wins, the party will claim it to be a referendum on the performance of its government and if it loses, the opposition will interpret it as a referendum against the government.
AAP’s “impressive performance” in the by-elections may not be of much help for the ruling party since it is faced with the peak of anti-incumbency. No government would like to face the local body elections at the midterm of its tenure.
Given the expertise the AAP has in fighting elections with “micro-management” to the smallest detail, the job of the opposition parties will not be easy either. However, in case there are any tactful agreements, “written or unwritten”, between the opposition parties, the municipal elections in Punjab this time might prove to be most unpredictable.
One thing is sure, the AAP has been taking the challenge seriously and appointment of Aman Arora a Hindu face, who has already started moving around the cities, is too obvious to be missed. How far it may help the party, only the results will tell.
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