aap-s-redeeming-victory-in-by-elections-after-grave-setbacks

These have been redeeming by-elections for the Aam Aadmi Party after grave setbacks in the General Election last year and the defeat in the Delhi assembly elections after that. The AAP won two of the five assembly constituencies, which went for by-elections on June 19, while the BJP, the Congress and the All India Trinamool Congress won one seat each.

 

The AAP won the prestigious Ludhiana West assembly constituency after a hard-fought battle against an aggressive Congress and a well-entrenched BJP. Party candidate Sanjeev Arora, a sitting Rajya Sabha MP defeated Bharat Bhushan Ashu of the Congress by a substantial margin of 10,637 votes. Ludhiana West by-election was necessitated by the death of the sitting AAP candidate Gurpreet Singh Gogi.

 

For the AAP, more important and more impressive was the victory in Visavadar in Gujarat, where its candidate Gopal Italia defeated the ruling BJP candidate Kirit Patel by a massive margin of 17,554 votes. The by-election was necessitated after AAP MLA from here, Bhupendrabhai Bhayani defected to the BJP and resigned. The BJP, however, did not nominate him for the elections. The BJP also dropped its previous candidate, Harshadkumar Ribadya who had lost to Bhayani in 2022.

 

There was a lesson against the defection in Visavadar result that people do not like defectors. While in 2022 the AAP had won this constituency by a margin of 7,063 votes only, this time, the AAP candidate won by an impressive margin of 17,554 votes. This was despite the fact that it was a by-election against the ruling party this time.

 

In Punjab, for the AAP winning Ludhiana West was a battle of prestige as well. Otherwise, it has already 94 MLAs in a house of 117. One more MLA will not make any difference to its political fortunes.

 

The party had fared badly in the General Elections winning just three of the 13 parliamentary seats in Punjab. It also lost all other seats it contested in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat. This was followed by a devastating defeat in Delhi elections where almost all the stalwarts, including Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyander Jain, Saurabh Bhardwaj and others lost their personal assembly segments also. The Punjab by-election victory in that sense comes as a redeeming and reassuring hope for the party.

 

Also read: Ludhiana West: Where BJP, Congress find common cause

 

At the same time, the party cannot ignore the fact that the victory in by-election was possible only because of the split in the opposition votes. Of the 90,160 votes cast in the Ludhiana by-election the party polled 35,179 votes, making it about 38 percent. The combined opposition got about 53,068 votes, that is 62 percent. In a multi-cornered contest, 38 percent is definitely a good score, but it was a by-election for the ruling party where so many factors were at work, unlike in the regular and General Elections.

 

The by-election result also smoothens the possible entry of party supremo Arvind Kejriwal to the Rajya Sabha, after Arora resigns from there. Arora was promised a ministerial berth by Kejriwal himself during the campaigning.

 

Congress needs to introspect

 

The Congress put up a spirited, but not a united fight. Ludhiana West was considered to be a party stronghold. Ashu has always been its best bet since 2012. He won the seat by a massive margin of about 40,000 votes in 2012 and 2017. However, he got swept away in the AAP tsunami of 2022 losing by a margin of little over 7,000 votes.

 

He had some issues with party’s state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and district president Sanjeev Talwar. Both of them remained away from the campaigning reportedly because Ashu did not want them in the constituency. Even some former local MLAs of the party did not actively participate in the campaign or opposed him. This was despite the fact that the party knew it was a “do or die” battle, which will set the tone for 2027 assembly elections. The party will need a thorough and serious introspection.

 

Another major problem for the Congress in urban areas of Punjab is the phenomenal rise of the BJP. In 2022, the party was swept away by the AAP from urban areas, because BJP cornered a lot of votes. Even in Ludhiana West, the Congress lost because of the BJP as its candidate got about 28,000 votes then. Any gain by the BJP in the urban areas in Punjab is at the cost of the Congress. This time also, the Congress had expected to get back some votes from the BJP, which did not happen. Had that happened, the results could have been different.

 

BJP retains its strong base

 

Another major takeaway from the Ludhiana West by-election is that the BJP has been able to maintain its strong base in the constituency that is dominated by the urban middle class. Party candidate Jiwan Gupta secured 20,323 votes. This was despite the fact that his candidature was announced quite late, well after the elections were announced. Compared to him, the AAP and the Congress had announced their candidates months before and they had already completed multiple rounds of campaigning by then.

 

Gupta was deemed to be lightweight candidate. A perception was created that the BJP had deliberately fielded a lightweight candidate and that too quite late, as a signal to its supporters to vote for the Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu to ensure the AAP’s defeat. Senior party leader and Delhi Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa during a press conference at the state party headquarters in Chandigarh had urged people to vote for “anyone” to ensure the defeat of the AAP candidate. This was taken as a suggestion to the party workers that they can vote for any candidate not necessarily their own candidate to defeat the AAP. But that did not happen.

 

The BJP has maintained a consistent record since 2022 when its candidate Bikram Singh Sidhu polled 28,107 votes. In 2024 General Elections, party candidate Ravneet Singh Bittu got 45,424 votes leading by about 15,000 votes over Raja Warring of the Congress who got 30,889 votes.

 

In hindsight, the BJP must be wondering had it fielded Sidhu again this time, he might well have reached a striking distance as he could have attracted Jat Sikh votes also, who are in quite significant numbers in this constituency.

 

Akali Dal performance not bad

 

Shiromani Akali Dal candidate Parupkar Singh Ghuman expectedly came at the fourth spot polling 8,203 votes. This is quite significant given the existential crisis the party is faced right now. Moreover, Ludhiana West has never been a stronghold of the party.

 

His relatively better score has given rise to the speculations that the BJP and the Akali Dal may consider coming together once again and they might end up as a force to reckon with, particularly in the urban areas.

 

While the Ludhiana West by-election result has been redeeming for the AAP, it is encouraging for the BJP and should force a deep and serious introspection among the Congress leadership, which refused to bury the hatchet even during such a “do or die” battle. May be the party learns some lessons from the defeat.