The prospect of the Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal entering the Rajya Sabha from Punjab is quite interesting. Kejriwal is a very strong and powerful voice anywhere. If and when he ends up in the parliament, it will carry more impact. Rather, he may not have any powerful competitor in the Rajya Sabha, other than Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who is also the Leader of Opposition there.
After Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora was announced as the AAP candidate for the scheduled Ludhiana by-election, which may be announced any time now, there is a strong probability that he may vacate his RS seat and might be replaced by the Kejriwal.
The unusual hurry the AAP has shown in announcing the candidate for the by-election – even though it has not been announced as yet - suggests that the party was trying to create a vacancy for the party supremo in the Rajya Sabha, “as soon as possible”. All the seven RS MPs from Punjab are from the AAP. In case the party wants to accommodate its convener in the Rajya Sabha, fielding Arora from Ludhiana West is the ideal way.
Arora is basically a Ludhiana-based businessman and an amateur politician, who surprised everyone when he was picked up by the AAP for the RS berth against the claims of potential aspirants who had substantially contributed towards building and strengthening the party in the state.
Ludhiana West by-election, which has not been announced so far, has been necessitated by the sudden death of the AAP MLA from Ludhiana West, Gurpreet Gogi, by accidental firing from his own revolver. Although his wife was at one stage considered to be a strong claimant for the ticket, the party eventually opted for Arora for the obvious reasons.
Normally, under such circumstances, when a sitting MLA dies, the parties usually nominate one of the family members. However, the AAP situation right now is different. It lost the Delhi election. Over and above, Kejriwal lost his own seat of New Delhi, which he had won thrice in a row with huge margins.
The AAP has reportedly chosen the RS course for its convener. Although Kejriwal is understood to have rejected the idea when it was initially suggested to him, it is learnt that he has been “convinced” to accept the RS membership as it suits his “political persona and stature”.
Right now, it is being suggested that Arora will resign “only” after he gets elected from Ludhiana West assembly segment. He has reportedly been assured of the ministerial berth also. The ruling AAP appears to have taken victory for granted given its track record of having won five of the six by-elections, including one parliamentary by-election during the last three years.
However, Ludhiana West may prove to be more challenging. It has been a Congress bastion. In 2022, the AAP won as it swept the entire state. In the parliamentary election, the AAP candidate remained third from here, way behind the BJP and the Congress candidates. Although the Congress won the parliamentary seat, the BJP led from here by a substantial margin of about 17,000 votes.
Neither the Congress, nor the BJP has announced candidates as yet, apparently because the by-election has not been notified so far. For the Congress, in all likelihood, it will be the two-time legislator from here and former minister Bharat Bhsuhan Ashu, who lost to the AAP candidate Gogi in 2022. BJP is also understood to be considering fielding a strong candidate from this assembly segment.
For the AAP, it will not be a mere by-election as in the past. This time, the AAP has much more at stake. The Ludhiana West by-election may indirectly turn out to be Rajya Sabha election for Kejriwal. Not that the AAP can’t make Arora resign even if he is not elected, but in that case, it will end up in bad political optics. In all likelihood, to avoid that situation, the AAP may make Arora resign before the elections.
Also read: Congress sets cat among AAP 'pigeons' in Punjab
The by-election will also be important, as it will be held when the next assembly elections will be less than two years away. The AAP cannot afford to lose this election after having lost Delhi as it can lead to the perception that the party is on decline. The result of this by-election will definitely set the tone for the 2027 assembly elections in the state.
Irrespective of what is going to be the final outcome of the Ludhiana West by-election, one thing that is certain is it will pave the way for Kejriwal’s entry into the Rajya Sabha. Given his oratorical skills and the persona that evolved in the last one decade, he will be quite a powerful voice that may be heard in the parliament.
Also, Kejriwal now is better suited for the parliament than the assembly. He has already spent 11 years as an MLA/ chief minister.
Given his “national” ambitions of extending the party across India, Rajya Sabha is the right place for him. He has fought the parliamentary elections only once in 2014 against Narendra Modi from Varanasi, when both the BJP as well as Narendra Modi were at the zenith of their popularity. Kejriwal did lose badly, but he did make his presence felt there.
Now, in all likelihood, he has reportedly again decided to take the parliamentary plunge after 11 years. This time, he has a guaranteed entry to the parliament through the Rajya Sabha route.
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