The consistent thing about US President Donald Trump is that he is never consistent and always unpredictable. Given his consistent inconsistency and predictable unpredictability, even when he recently said, “India and the United States have a very special relationship,” it was taken with a pinch of salt. There may or may not be any change of heart, but the situation and circumstances may have influenced his “rethinking” about India.
During a recent briefing, he said, “I’ll always be friends with (Narendra) Modi. He’s a great Prime Minister. I’ll always be friends but I just don’t like what he is doing at this particular moment. But India and the United States have a very special relationship. There is nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi reciprocated in a measured manner on his social media handle, ‘X’ saying, “deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump's sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the US have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.”
Trump certainly is unpredictable, but his words about Modi always being a friend and India and the United States having a special relationship, have a definite background that goes far off to Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.
Just three days ago, China flexed its military might and muscle at a grand parade to mark the victory in World War II, primarily against Japan. It is a different story that the victory that Chinese President Xi Jinping was celebrating along with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, was mostly because of the United States.
The very fact that Putin and Kim were present at the parade along with the Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the Iranian and other leaders, must have been enough reason for the US President to introspect and rethink his approach to dealing with India.
As already pointed out in these columns earlier, Prime Minister Modi drew a perfect balance when he restricted his presence in China to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Although he did, in a clear message apparently aimed at the US, generate enough optics by walking side by side with President Putin and President Jinping, he did not extend his stay beyond that.
Also read: World diplomacy at a pivot: Is it turning to the Global South?
Modi made it a point that he is not seen to have joined the Russia, China and North Korea axis. Russia indeed is a longtime ally of India and that alliance is non-negotiable. While India did hint at warming up to China, it did that in a discreet manner. The subtle message in Modi exiting China well on time was not lost on anyone, not at least on the US policy makers.
How much irked and annoyed Trump was with China, Russia and North Korea forming an “axis”, described as an “evil axis” and “evil triad” by some sections in the western media, was obvious the way Trump reacted and wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America”. There were leaders of several other developing countries, including Iran and Pakistan who also watched the military parade.
China wanted to convey a message and it did. It reached the right quarters. It hit where it hurt the most as Trump reacted in his own characteristic manner without maintaining any diplomatic niceties. No matter what Trump claims, this “axis”, irrespective of how much “evil” it is described to be, it is going to be a challenge to the US dominance, although not necessarily militarily, but diplomatically.
Trump, from his policy of “America first” appears to have gone to the policy of “America only.” This has already isolated America. Even a country like Pakistan, for which he antagonised India, marked its presence at the Chinese military parade. Not that Pakistan is of any consequence in the scheme of international relations, but having sided with China in an apparent affront to the US must have made the US realise how challenging China is proving to be and how unreliable Pakistan can be.
Trump extending an olive branch to India must be viewed in this context. Everyone in the United States, while cautioning him against alienating India, had been reminding and warning him against the same situation, where it will be left with no one to counter China. The Chinese military parade with the presence of so many world leaders happened at the right time to make the US President realise that the US needs India as much as India needs the US.
Also read: Modi draws balance, stands out in SCO summit
It is still too early to rush to any conclusions. There is still a long way to go for the Indo-US relations to revert to the normal phase. It will not be so easy for the US President to reverse his decisions he took citing certain principles. But this paves a way and presents a hope that there is a lot of scope for the Indo-US relations that goes beyond the tariffs and the import of Russian oil.
While the Chinese military parade is certainly not good news for India either, as it poses a great challenge in the immediate neighbourhood and hostile at that, it, at least, made the US feel and realise that it can alienate and antagonise India only to its own disadvantage.
Follow us
