The by-election to the Ludhiana West assembly seat is going to be quite inconsequential in terms of numerical arithmetic as far as the Punjab Legislative Assembly is concerned. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party enjoys a brute majority with 94 legislators in a house of 117. Even if it loses the by-election, it does not alter any equations.
Yet, the election is turning into an all-out battle, primarily between the AAP and the principal opposition party, the Congress. The Bharatiya Janata Party has a very strong base in the assembly segment, from where its parliamentary candidate polled over 45,000 votes, leading by 15,000. However, for some unexplained reasons, the party has so far not declared its candidate, even after the Election Commission of India announced the schedule. The by-election will be held on June 19 and votes will be counted on June 23.
The Shiromani Akali Dal, though in isolated margins in this segment, has also announced its candidate, Parupkar Singh Ghuman, a senior advocate and former president of the Ludhiana District Bar Association.
For the AAP, it is widely perceived to be an election that will facilitate ‘smooth’ landing of its supremo Arvind Kejriwal in Rajya Sabha. The party has fielded sitting RS MP Sanjeev Arora from here in the hope that he gets elected to the assembly. However, Arora and everyone in the AAP knows that irrespective of the by-election result, he will have to resign and make way for Kejriwal.
Otherwise also, Arora is not a career politician. He was a surprise pick for the AAP RS nomination in 2022. He was supported by the strong business lobby in the city, particularly a leading business house of Ludhiana famous for hosiery products. Arora has reportedly been promised that he would be appointed minister in the government. Some even claim that he has been promised the post of the Deputy Chief Minister. For qualifying to become the minister/Deputy Chief Minister he will need to get win first, which is not going to be a cakewalk.
The AAP has won five of the seven by-elections held during its term so far. However, this one is going to be very challenging. It comes at a time when the anti-incumbency is at its peak. The government is left with about 20 months more of its tenure. The party fared badly in the parliamentary elections in Punjab, losing 10 of the 13 constituencies. In Ludhiana West, where by-election is being held, the party trailed by over 23,000 votes in the parliamentary elections. It also lost Delhi assembly elections. For the AAP, winning Ludhiana West will provide a consolatory feeling of redemption.
On the other hand, the Congress has fielded two-time former MLA and a former minister, Bharat Bhushan Ashu, from here. Ashu is also the working president of the Punjab Congress. He will prove to be a formidable candidate for multiple reasons. One, the Congress has a guaranteed vote bank of around 30,000 votes in the assembly segment. Two, Ashu, having spent his whole life and political career nourishing this constituency, knows it like the back of his palm.
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In strong contrast, Arora was neither a politician nor was he based here. He spent most of his time outside and was based out of Delhi. Even during the last three years of his RS term he remained in Delhi mainly, since RS members do not have a geographically marked constituency.
Despite the fact that the BJP has a very strong presence in this assembly segment, it has delayed the announcement of the candidate. This is being interpreted as the party’s subtle message to its cadres that more than the party wanting to win, it wants to get the AAP candidate defeated. Senior BJP leader and Delhi minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa appealed to people, on record, during a press conference at the BJP’s Punjab headquarters that they can vote for anyone they want, to ensure that the AAP candidate gets defeated. The message was not lost on anyone.
By the time Ludhiana West result will be declared, there will be about one-and-a-half years left for the next assembly elections in Punjab. The result will definitely set the tone for the 2027 assembly polls. That is why both the Congress as well as the AAP are taking it very seriously.
In case of an adverse result, the morale of the AAP rank and file will be shattered. And if the Congress wins, its morale would be boosted. And the reverse will be true for both the parties in case the result does not come up to their expectations.
The AAP has already conveyed its seriousness about the by-election with the Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and the party supremo Arvind Kejriwal having already done two campaign programmes of three days each in the constituency. It was before the election schedule was announced. Now, they are likely to be seen more here.
Most of the Congress leadership from Punjab has also started camping here, while the BJP continues to be ‘out of sight’. Despite being the by-election of one single assembly segment, without any electoral fallout, the contest is going to be a ‘titanic’ one, as its outcome definitely is not going to have any immediate consequences but will have long-term bearing for all the contesting parties in terms of the 2027 assembly elections. That is why it is going to be the battle of the battles, which no party would like to lose!
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