congress-best-bet-is-siddaramaiah-at-the-helm

Rumours may have some factual basis, albeit they may present an exaggerated version of the truth. In the political spectrum, this possibility gives birth to many theories, thereby leaving ample room for suppositions. 

 

The ongoing speculation over Karnataka’s CM face has been doing the rounds since May 2023, when the Congress won the state assembly elections. The buzz around this reverberates even after the dispensation has completed 2 years of its governance. It is to be noted that the timeframe has a lot to do with the stiff competition between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar for the topmost position.

 

When Siddaramaiah was chosen as the CM, there were widespread reports that suggested a ‘rotational chief minister’ formula had been implemented to decide the CM of Karnataka. That is, Siddaramaiah will remain the chief minister for two-and-a-half years, and then Shivakumar will succeed him. And, since there are just 4.5 months left for the Karnataka Congress government to complete its half tenure, persistent speculation about the change of guards has surfaced. However — neither then nor now — there has been no confirmation from the leaders in question or the Congress high command regarding this formula in place.

 

Although the conjecture received a much-needed fillip from state Congress leaders close to Shivakumar, hinting at a change in leadership in the near future— to be specific, before 2025 ends, events that followed, too, did their bit. Congress General Secretary for Karnataka Randeep Singh Surjewala was in the state recently to meet disgruntled MLAs. However, he dismissed the chances of a change in leadership. President of the Congress Mallikarjun Kharge left the discussion open by stating that the party high command would decide the fate of both the leaders.

 

Also read: Shivakumar's cryptic ‘chair’ remark fuels CM change speculation

 

It was during this time that Siddaramaiah firmly stated that he would complete five-year term as the Chief Minister. He has dismissed any reports of a power-sharing pact as "incorrect" and emphasised that there is "no vacancy" for the CM post. Shivakumar, too, has largely denied plans for a cabinet reshuffle or a change in leadership, stating that he and Siddaramaiah are focused on state issues and will abide by the high command's decision.

 

Both the leaders were in Delhi recently to meet central party leaders. These meetings have further fueled the speculation, although this is not the first incident when both the leaders were in Delhi at the same time. Prior to this, the Bengaluru stampede incident cajoled the two of them to meet the Congress high command in Delhi.

 

There is no denying that both leaders come with their share of positives and negatives. Yet, if one looks at the larger picture, it will benefit the Congress in the longer run if they let Siddaramaiah complete his tenure as the CM and Shivakumar take the lead in the preparations for the 2028 state polls.

 

On deeper analysis, the Karnataka CM change politics is characterised by an ongoing power dynamic and underlying tension between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, indicating a power-sharing agreement and the aspirations of their respective supporters, while the Congress high command tries to project a united front.

 

Checked ambitions and political reasoning

 

While Siddaramaiah has a personal ambition to match or surpass former chief minister D Devaraj Urs's record as Karnataka's longest-serving CM — this would require him to complete his term as CM — the Congress high command's decision to stick with Siddaramaiah can be attributed to several strategic reasons.

 

Siddaramaiah is a seasoned politician with considerable experience. Retaining him provides a sense of stability and continuity, especially after a significant electoral victory. Frequent leadership changes can be seen as a sign of instability and can disrupt governance.

 

He has a strong appeal among the ‘Ahinda’ — minorities, backward classes, and Dalits — vote bank, a social coalition he has meticulously cultivated over the years. Removing a leader from a marginalised community could send a negative message, particularly with upcoming elections in other states such as Bihar, which has a significant backward and extremely backward class voter base.

 

At the same time, the Grand Old Party of India may want to avoid repeating the mistakes of states, namely, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where internal bickering between top leaders led to significant political instability. By maintaining the status quo, it may aim to prevent an open power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, which could harm the party's image and performance in the subsequent elections.

 

Moreover, Shivakumar’s public image is a matter of concern. He has faced scrutiny and investigations by central investigative agencies regarding alleged money laundering cases. CBI, ED, and the Income Tax department are probing Shivakumar in over 15 cases. He was even lodged in Tihar jail for 50 days in 2019 on charges of money laundering. 

 

The Congress might be wary of elevating him to the CM's post, fearing that opposition parties — Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal (Secular) — could use these cases as ammunition to launch scathing attacks on the Congress for promoting a leader who holds a tainted image. This might overshadow the government's achievements.

 

Siddaramaiah, on the contrary, was hailed as a paragon of integrity, until the MUDA scam cast a shadow on his image. Yet, comparatively — in terms of demeanour — he has the upper hand over Shivakumar. Additionally, his political career and previous tenure as CM take the reliability factor up by several notches. This adds to his deep understanding of the state's administration, challenges, and developmental needs that can contribute to more effective governance.

 

Like Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar, too, has ambitions and aspires to hold the top position, which is evident from his remarks given to the media. May that be earlier or now, he has been quite vocal about his candidature for the Karnataka chief minister’s post. Recently, he was quoted by the media: “What option do I have”. “Leave it. Many of you too have dreams”. Alas, some dreams are always left unfulfilled.

 

Moreover, a change in CM's face at the mid-term will inevitably slow down decision-making and the implementation of policies, especially if there's a lack of full cooperation from all segments of the party. Although Shivakumar has a formidable leader’s image, giving him the CM's post at this juncture, most likely will open a Pandora's Box of internal conflicts, thereby providing significant leverage to the Opposition.

 

It is, thus, expected from the Grand Old Party of India to prioritise stability, strategic electoral considerations, and Siddaramaiah's proven administrative experience to continue with him at the helm in Karnataka.

 

Also read: Shivakumar backs CM, says no need to speak on leadership change