The Congress in Punjab failed badly in capitalising on the opportunity it got when the ruling Aam Aadmi Party was at its weakest. When seven of the 10 AAP Rajya Sabha members (six of the seven from Punjab only) left the party, it was a golden opportunity for the Congress to go on the offensive and hit at its rival when it was struggling to find its feet.
By now, the AAP has managed to recover and stabilise from the initial shock. Irrespective of the fact if those MPs matter anywhere in Punjab, the quantum of the impact was shocking for the ruling party in the state. It had never seen such large scale desertions at a single time. The AAP has absorbed the shock and in all likelihood it will emerge at least stronger than what its situation is right now.
The Congress has to blame itself. The party could not formulate a coordinated offensive to corner the ruling party. Except for token and individual statements from different leaders, the party did nothing to make the ruling party feel defensive. There was not a simple or even a standard demand asking the government to prove its majority on the floor of the house.
The party has no dearth of strong and influential leaders. They include PCC president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, Congress legislative party leader Partap Singh Bajwa, former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi, former deputy chief minister and AICC general secretary Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, former ministers Rana Gurjeet Singh and Pargat Singh and last but not the least, the indomitable Sukhpal Singh Khaira. Except for Khaira, most other leaders were too discreet to hit at the AAP. Some of them preferred silence. Only Khaira, as usual, went against the AAP lock, stock and barrel.
The Congress remains the principal opposition party in Punjab. Any disadvantage to the AAP will be a direct advantage for the Congress. If the AAP gets weak, the Congress gets stronger. When seven MPs leave a party en bloc, there must be something wrong somewhere about the party. The Congress, being the principal opposition party, should know the reasons. If it did not know, it does not deserve to occupy the opposition space, leave aside replacing the AAP and if it really knew and did not act, it appears to have given up on its fight against the AAP for whatever reasons.
It is difficult to predict whether the Congress gets any such opportunity to corner the ruling party again, when the elections are less than a year away. Like the AAP has already started reflecting and introspecting and is fully focused on its job as how to make corrections, the Congress is yet to make up its mind as to how to go about the crucial battle.
Also read: Defections expose deep fault lines within AAP
For the Congress, the problem is that nobody knows who is in command, although Warring has time and again been conveyed in no ambiguous terms that he is going to continue as the PCC president.
CLP leader Bajwa, despite being competent and capable, appears to be making guarded moves, lest he be seen overstepping his brief and bypassing the state president, who is believed to be enjoying the confidence of the party high command, particularly the general secretary in charge of Punjab.
Former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi, a prominent, rather dominant Dalit face of the party, is paddling his own canoe in the hope and with the confidence that his identity as well as having held the top position, he remains indispensable and will be difficult to ignore for the party.
As of now, there is no doubt that if any party is in a position to replace the AAP in Punjab it is the Congress only. And there is nothing against the Congress. The only grouse among the people is that the Congress leadership is not united. This perception has already built up across the state among the people. As the time passes, the perception is getting strengthened further. Besides, the ruling party as well as the Akali Dal and BJP are paddling this narrative that the Congress is a divided house, which right now, it actually is.
Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, did make it categorically clear to one and all that nobody is indispensable; if anyone thinks himself to be above the party, he can be discarded and dispensed with. But that does not seem to have generated any impact on the ground. The Congress leaders have not buried their hatchet yet. And there is no chance if there is no direct intervention from the high command.
The best course available right now for the party is that Rahul Gandhi should personally intervene and take full-time interest in the state affairs. No matter how powerful and neutral a general secretary in charge may be, he is never seen to be neutral. Current general secretary in charge is no exception.
The year 2027 is going to be a high stakes battle for the Congress and BJP as seven states are going to the polls. Except for Uttar Pradesh, the Congress remains the main and mostly the only challenger to the BJP. Only in Punjab, the Congress has a definite and decisive edge over the BJP, though its main competitor here is the Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP remains a marginal player.
It will be better for the Congress to take a leaf out of the AAP book and focus all its energies in next few months on Punjab. The AAP has no option as Punjab is its only source of political survival. If it loses Punjab, it will face an existential threat. It has a challenging and a very difficult task ahead to save Punjab and its own existence.
Like the entire AAP leadership right from Arvind Kejriwal downwards, including Manish Sisodia, Satyender Jain, Sanjay Singh and others, have been deputed and deployed in Punjab, the Congress needs to do the same. There is no harm in Rahul camping in Punjab for a few weeks to weave together unity among the leadership as only that can help the party get strengthened.
The Congress leadership in Delhi does not seem to have gauged the seriousness and intensity of the challenge in Punjab. It runs the risk of squandering away a chance if it does not set the house in order.
In case the Akali Dal and BJP decide to form an alliance, the job will get more challenging and difficult for the Congress.
The high command must take note. At least, make the leaders “look united and together,” lest it is too late.
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