Congress high command has started the process of uniting a fragmented Punjab unit. A meeting of all senior leaders, some of them warring with each other, was recently held in Delhi. The Congress leadership seems to have taken a timely step as the elections are still one-and-a-half years away.
All the major political parties in the state have already got into the “action mode”. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party has already set the tone and made it clear that it will try to win the elections by hook or by crook and won’t mind using, ‘saam daam, dand bhed…’
That said, it is certainly going to be an uphill task for the ruling party in Punjab, given the anti-incumbency that was reflected during the 2024 General Elections, when the AAP could win just three of the 13 Parliamentary seats from the state. Its lead in the Assembly segments came down from 92 that it won in the 2022 elections, to just 32.
With the Shiromani Akali Dal dogged by dissidence after the emergence of the rebel group headed by a former Akal Takhat Jathedar, and the Bharatiya Janata Party remaining confined to certain urban areas only, the Congress is presumed to be a potential challenger and a strong alternative to the ruling AAP.
In the 2024 General Elections, the Congress led from 38 Assembly segments ahead of the AAP, while the BJP led from 23 and the Akali Dal from only nine segments. The Congress won seven and the Akalis could manage only one Parliament seat. The BJP, despite impressive performance – mainly due to Narendra Modi and Ram Mandir factors – and leading from 23 Assembly segments, could not win a single Parliamentary seat.
Also read: Rebel Akali Dal can upset the applecart in Punjab
This has obviously put the Congress in a relatively better position ahead of others. But taking for granted that it will “certainly replace” the AAP will mean exaggerated optimism. The Congress in Punjab today lacks a towering leader. The party has a tradition of fighting elections under the leadership of strong and veteran leaders, be it Beant Singh, Rajinder Kaur Bhattal or Capt Amarinder Singh.
It was because of a strong and powerful leader like Capt Amarinder that the party won two elections of 2002 and 2017 in the state. Even when it lost in 2007 and 2012, its performance was quite impressive as it retained the “40 per cent plus” vote share. During both its losses, its vote share was just around one per cent less than the Akali-BJP combine.
If the Congress leadership in Punjab believes that history will repeat itself like in 2017 just because people are disillusioned with the AAP, it is badly mistaken. The elections of 2027 will not be like that of 2017. Punjab polity has turned multipolar. While till 2017, it was mainly between the Congress and the Akali-BJP combine, although AAP emerged as a strong force and principal opposition party then, in 2027 it is going to be at least a five-cornered contest.
The Congress does have an advantage over others in different ways. Against the AAP it has a strong party infrastructure in place right up to the grassroots level, which the AAP does not have. The Congress also has a uniform presence across all sections of the society and all areas whether rural or urban. The Akalis’ support base is restricted to the rural areas and that too fragmented. The BJP remains confined mainly to the urban areas.
The Congress right now is struggling against bad optics thanks to the factionalism that has prevailed in the party so far. Although the party high command did hold a joint meeting in which leaders of both the factions participated, the narrative may take some time more to shift from “factionalism to unity”.
On Thursday, Punjab Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring personally paid a visit to dissident leader Pargat Singh, former Olympian and captain of the Indian hockey team. Warring also shared the dais after a long time with former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi at the Save Constitution rally in Jalandhar.
Also read: Akali-BJP alliance in Punjab is a strong possibility
That the purpose of the rally was more to send a message of unity than to “save the Constitution” was more than evident as the party held the rally when large parts of Punjab were submerged in floodwaters. Thursday’s “joint rally” was the result of the meeting convened by the party high command in Delhi a few days back, where the message was loud and clear that all of them must not only unite, but also send across the message of unity. That was the reason that Warring went to meet Pargat at his house in Jalandhar. Unity must also be seen.
The Congress’ challenge does not end here. Eventually, the warring leaders would agree to reconciliation, as the Congress leaders are known to bury the hatchet at the time of elections. Their battle lies ahead. The AAP may not have a strong party infrastructure and network like the Congress but it does have a good support base owing to the 300 units of free power it has been providing to people in Punjab. In case the AAP government starts paying the promised Rs 1,000 monthly stipend to women, it will be an added advantage for the ruling party.
The second and the major challenge for the Congress comes from the BJP which has made impressive gains in urban areas. While the Congress does have a strong presence in the rural areas, it derives its main strength from the urban areas only. Past election results are indicative of the fact that whenever the Congress fared badly in urban areas, it lost. In fact, in 2022, the Congress lost most of the urban seats in cities like Amritsar, Jalandhar and Ludhiana mainly because the BJP got a huge chunk of votes and the AAP got the advantage.
While the process of “uniting” a fragmented Congress has started and is likely to bear fruits, the party will have to confront many more serious challenges during the 2027 elections.
Follow us
