friends-can-be-changed-but-not-neighbours

Nature has surrounded India by sea in the east, south, and west.

We already have an antagonistic situation with Pakistan in the west and China in the north, and now, India has a new unfriendly neighbour on the eastern front following the dramatic ouster of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh.

 

The world’s largest democracy has emerged as one of the global leaders recently, but India is now facing the problem of being surrounded by unfriendly neighbours.

 

The recent Bangladesh visit of Pakistan intelligence wing ISI head Lt Gen Asim Malik has heightened tension in diplomatic ties between India and Bangladesh. Malik’s quiet Dhaka visit came to light after a delegation of the Bangladesh army arrived in Islamabad and held meetings with Pakistan army officials.

 

The picture looks more complicated for India, as its maritime neighbour Sri Lanka faces an economic crisis and Maldives’ recent strained diplomatic ties. Another western neighbour, Afghanistan, is facing an economic disaster after the Taliban took over in 2021.

 

India’s bilateral relationship with China is on the edge, and with Pakistan, the country shares a strained and complex relationship, considering historical conflicts and tension.

 

So, India is now surrounded by unfriendly neighbours and neighbours in crisis. For India, the course of time will decide whether Bangladesh is a friend or a foe.

 

Neighbours’ Muslim identity card

 

Responsible for Hasina’s ouster and unrest in Bangladesh, two political forces—Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami—are anti-secular. They both carry out activities on the belief that Bangladesh must maintain an Islamic identity despite it being founded on secular principles.

The involvement of Pakistan in the changes in Bangladesh’s politics and the fall of the Hasina-led Awami League government on August 5, 2024, was neutral, but the developments between the two countries during the post-Hasina regime suggest India’s western neighbour is seeking to establish control over its limb amputated in 1971.

Bangladesh’s interim government already changed the narrative of the country’s independence in the textbooks by replacing Bangabandhu Mujibur Rahman with Ziaur Rahman, saying that it was the former military officer, not Bangabandhu, who declared the independence of Bangladesh in 1971.

In 1977, BNP founder Ziaur Rahman removed the word “secular” from Bangladesh’s constitution by a martial law directive during the military dictatorship. The Bangladesh Supreme Court in 2010 ruled that the removal of secularism was illegal.

Indian intelligence agencies have come to know that aiming to derail Hasina’s government, the people of Bangladesh were mobilised, radicalised, and funded by foreign powers through Jamaat and the BNP. Bangladesh’s interim government has set up a Constitution Reform Commission comprising nine members. Though the BNP wanted to reform the country’s constitution under the watch of an elected government, Jamaat opposed it.

 

It seems the changes in Bangladesh’s constitution are not going to be in favour of secularism, as Jamaat, having stronger command over the interim government than the BNP, opposed the creation of Bangladesh and opposed the idea of independence from Pakistan to retain a Muslim majority.

 

Security threat

For the first time since its Liberation War in 1971, Bangladesh allowed a cargo ship, which came directly from Karachi, Pakistan, to anchor in Chittagong port in November last year. Pakistan’s high commissioner in Bangladesh, Syd Ahmed Maroof, was present to welcome the cargo ship.

 

Though the Indian intelligence agencies informed Delhi that the containers in the ship transported manufacturing materials and fertilisers, the second shipment that arrived at Chittagong in December triggered a concern.

 

Indian intelligence agencies came to know two containers stashed with seismic explosives were transported through the 2,775-nautical-mile direct maritime route, which left the port in haste.

 

India’s security agencies found the new direct maritime route between Pakistan and Bangladesh poses a serious threat. The probe into the Mumbai attack on November 26, 2008, revealed the terrorists travelled in a cargo ship from Pakistan and hijacked a trawler to reach the shore.

 

Indian intelligence wings suspect ISI chief Malik’s Bangladesh visit was aimed at establishing an intelligence-sharing network between the intelligence agencies of both countries, which is intended to create disturbances in India through cross-border subversive activities, especially targeting India’s northeast states.

 

In a recent crackdown by Assam police, 12 persons, including a Bangladeshi national and three from West Bengal, were rounded up. Improvised explosive devices (IEDs), an improvised AK-47 rifle, and grenades were recovered from the suspect.

 

“There are many examples to prove ISI’s links with disturbance in the northeastern states,” said an intelligence wing officer. 

 

Dhaka and Islamabad have not favourably viewed their relationship for much of the 54 years since Bangladesh broke away from Pakistan. The tension in their ties only deepened during the nearly 16-year rule of Sheikh Hasina.

 

Impact on economy

 

The bilateral export-import chain between India and Bangladesh has not been disturbed yet. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia.

 

Bangladesh is importing 1,160 MW of power from India, and the neighbouring country inked many projects under the previous Hasina-led government. But Bangladesh's current interim government leaves room for uncertainty.

 

Bangladesh is a major market for India’s textile and agricultural exports. Bangladesh’s garment manufacturing trade has already been hit due to the ongoing unrest in the country. As foreign buyers have cancelled more than 20 per cent of orders, more than 300 garment manufacturing units out of 450 have already shut down production, leaving more than 4 million people jobless.

 

According to data available from the Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), the import demand for raw materials to manufacture readymade garments is declining because of fewer orders from foreign buyers. The owners of manufacturing units have no option left other than shutting down the business, as they are unable to pay bank loans.

 

However, the import chain of agricultural products is not facing any immediate threat as India has kept the supply chain undisturbed.

 

India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, during his meeting with his counterparts in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in December last year, emphasised that people are the main stakeholders in India-Bangladesh relations.

 

“India’s development cooperation and multifaceted engagements with Bangladesh, including in the areas of connectivity, trade, power, energy, and capacity building, are all geared towards the benefit of the people of Bangladesh,” said Misri after meeting Bangladesh foreign secretary Jashim Uddin.