The International Atomic Energy Agency has called Pakistan’s bluff over the suspected unclear leaks around Kirana Hills near Sargodha in Pakistan after these were hit by Indian missiles during Operation Sindoor.
It was this “suspected nuclear and radiation leakage” that Pakistan used to plead with the US President Donald Trump that the region would end up in a nuclear holocaust if the war was not stopped.
Trump, ever enthusiastic to credit himself with the trophy of stopping a “nuclear war”, bit the bait and prevailed upon India to accept Pakistan’s plea for ceasefire, lest, as he believed, it may end up in nuclear war.
As is now emerging from neutral, independent and authoritative sources, Pakistan got badly hit in India’s retaliatory missile firing, with several airbases badly damaged. This reportedly included Kirana Hills, which are believed to hold Pakistan's nuclear dump. The entrance to the dump was badly damaged.
While it is believed that India made a targeted hit, India’s Director General of Military Operations Air Marshal AK Bharti feigned ignorance about the existence of any such targeted attack during a post-ceasefire interaction. He even said they had no idea that Kirana Hills held any nuclear facility.
Whether targeted or intentional, it did provide an excuse to Pakistan to plead with the US for an immediate ceasefire. Otherwise, just a day before the US President claimed that his country had facilitated the ceasefire, US Vice President JD Vance had categorically stated that the India-Pakistan conflict was none of their business and they did not want to come in between the two warring nations.
While Vance’ statement was interpreted differently by different people, independent observers concluded that this was to the advantage of India. No matter how many countries may come in support of Pakistan, whether China or Turkiye, India enjoys unassailable military superiority and dominance over Pakistan. With the US opting to stay out, Pakistan felt under tremendous pressure as the hostilities advanced.
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Realising that China or Turkiye can hardly help in bringing truce with India, Pakistan’s hopes were dashed with Vance statement. Pakistan has always banked on the US support/intervention whenever it gets a drubbing from India like in 1999 during the Kargil War. After India retaliated with full force and might and cornered Pakistan in Kargil hills, the then Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the elder brother of the current Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif, went rushing to the United Stated and sought the then President Bill Clinton’s intervention.
The then Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is on record having said he was called by Clinton to come over to the US as Sharif was there for a ceasefire. Vajpayee refused to go to the US and told Clinton categorically that there cannot be any negotiations till the Pakistan army did not vacate the Indian land it had encroached upon. Clinton had no option but to ask Sharif bluntly to vacate the Indian positions, which Pakistan did instantly and the hostilities ceased.
Given this historical precedent and India’s stated position, Pakistan this time knew that it will be difficult to bring India on the negotiating table. That too when India was on an advantageous position having wreaked havoc on Pakistan’s military installations, decapitating many of these. There was no reason and intention for India to go for a ceasefire.
In this situation Pakistan raised the bogey of the “nuclear leak/war” with Trump, making him believe that the South Asian region was headed for a nuclear conflagration. Trump believed Pakistanis and understandably convinced Prime Minister Narendra Modi that there was a strong apprehension of the nuclear war.
Modi is believed to have strongly resisted any such proposal and suggestion about nuclear war, which he described as a desperate blackmail. He later said publicly also that India cannot and will not be intimidated with nuclear blackmail.
The “nuclear leak and radiations” were quoted during the negotiations. It was even suggested that a special US plane to check the level of radiation around the Kirana Hills was deputed. It is now confirmed that experts were summoned to check the level of possible radiation around the Kirana Hills.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the monitoring agency for nuclear programmes world over, also assessed the situation. Finally, it came to the conclusion that there was no such “nuclear leak” and nor was there any “nuclear radiation” noticed anywhere around the area.
While the IAEA has finally called Pakistan’s bluff, but not before it managed to bluff Trump into believing that there was a possible nuclear leak and a probable nuclear conflagration that he ran for a ceasefire.
As the ceasefire came into force, Trump started claiming that he saved the world from an imminent nuclear war between the two nuclear states, India and Pakistan, while there actually was no such possibility.
Even the Pakistan Defence Minister Asim Khwaja had ruled out the possibility of Pakistan using the nuclear option, when he was asked by reporters about the meeting of the ‘National Command Authority, country’s supreme security body authorised to take a call on using nuclear weapons.
Findings and revelations of the IAEA notwithstanding, Trump is convinced that he has prevented a nuclear war and saved millions of lives, without realising that he was actually bluffed into believing something that never happened and was not going to happen either.
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