China and India, the two major powers in the region, are focused on extending their influence while raising their military, economic and industrial capabilities.
However, while both sides have set their sights on becoming a leading power in the global south, China’s capabilities are decades ahead of India’s, if not centuries.
Indian leadership lacks what is known as a clear and focused foreign policy. It wants to align with the West for security guarantees and defence cooperation, while it looks to maintain strategic relations with Russia; and at the same time aspires to emerge as a global powerhouse through trade cooperation with China.
But unfortunately, these confounding strategies do not work in the international order, as the recent examples have clearly shown that trade partners cannot be enemies at the border.
Enemies at the border
India and China are looking to reset their severed ties due to the clash at the Galwan Valley in 2020, and subsequent confrontations that further damaged the ties. However, India and China never cancelled their bilateral trade, which is the only goodwill that has been going on between the two border rivals.
Non-alignment approach, unreliable West
The gamble India played through the non-alignment policy, as it continued purchasing Russian oil and then sold it off to the Western world, was bound to have some serious complications for the Indian foreign policy. Such a recent case was noticed during Operation Sindoor, when the international community, including India’s friends, the US, the UK and France, did not show their support to condemn the Pakistani side for the Pahalgam attack.
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The shocks given by US President Donald Trump have made the Narendra Modi government realise the nature of the US friendship, as it remains an unreliable partner to India. While on one side, the US wants to use India as a bulwark against China in its containment policy, and at the same time, it also ditches New Delhi when it needs the US support.
The policymakers are trying to adjust to the emerging global order that has been shaken up by the Ukraine and Gaza wars. India can take references from recent and historical examples. The United States has never cooperated with nations beyond its own interest. Pakistan has traditionally been an ally of the US, but it abandoned the country after it withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.
The case was repeated in the Middle East after the US abandoned the SDF forces, which played a decisive role against ISIS. In 2025, the United States ditched Ukraine after retracting all the support over what they believed was not paying dividends for the US government.
The SCO factor
PM Modi recently visited the SCO summit in China’s Tianjin port city, where more than 26 heads of states attended the meeting and witnessed China’s massive military parade. The Prime Minister focused on two major aspects of the relationship between India and China: one, trade, and two, de-escalation at the border.
China agreed to increase trade with India, which is perhaps in the best interest of the country, with a focus on reducing the $100 billion deficit in the coming days.
India and China are aiming to challenge the Western world through bilateral trade cooperation, yet they remain bitter rivals at the border.
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As of now, India must avoid all military confrontations with neighbours, including Pakistan and China. The confrontation will only hamper India's prospects in the near future. The Western fears of India becoming powerful are well known across international circles. India needs to readjust its foreign policy and also reconsider the options that it can depend on in times of crisis.
Need for cooperation
Both sides need to understand that trade alone does not define power; it remains important, but it is only a portion of the power projection. The fact remains that India is still buying massive defence ordnance from the West; it relies on or has increased its reliance on Western technology for the defence sector. While the ‘look East’ policy may provide India with short-term relief from the US trade sanctions, it can now rebuild ties with Beijing, particularly for rare earth minerals that China controls.
Are China and India equal?
While the politicians and policymakers believe that China and India are equal partners, one must remember that China treats Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the majority of the underdeveloped nations as equals! But are they equal? The answer to such a complex question is hard to come by from politicians who have no idea of foreign affairs, global diplomacy and international relations.
Skewed balance of power
India and China are poles apart: one aims to become a regional giant, and the other aims to overthrow the world superpower and take its spot. The trajectories can be assessed from a range of factors.
GDP mismatch
The projections can be misleading when they are compared. Let us understand it with examples: India is the fourth-largest GDP in terms of numbers, but ranks several indexes below in per capita GDP. The difference between the two economies can be understood from the fact that China has nearly 5 times the GDP compared to India.
Defence and military tech limitations
China in modern days produces and exports almost all defence hardware at home. While India depends heavily on the Western world, leading to some compromises, as was witnessed with the French Rafales, when they denied India the source code access.
Way forward
While the gap appears to be massive between the two nations, India’s recent readjustment could pave the way for much broader and deeper bilateral ties with China, as it is in the interest of the country.
China has offered to open its market for India, but the approach with Beijing must be calculated and cautious. Though it never means that we should allow those suspicions to hinder the prospect of securing better relations with China.
Together, these two nations account for more than 2.8 billion people, a market that is good enough to make the two countries economic powerhouses in the near future.
By Waseem Ahmad Ganie
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