The Pahalgam terror attacks made a few things distinctly clear — one of the most significant being that it’s very important for India to have allies, not just good trading partners, nor just friendly nations, but loyal allies with unconditional support and backing. Events unfolding on the sidelines of every global event further reinforce that belief. As US President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House on Wednesday, the debate on its symbolic implications for India, understandably, followed.
Who all can India rely on for isolating Pakistan on the world stage? Is it Russia? In 2023, India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar called India-Russia ties as “the only constant in world politics.” While the statement stands factually true to this date, it hasn’t aged exactly well in essence and in spirit. Russia-India — long-time strategic partners and strong trade allies, like any other diplomatic partners, haven’t been immune to the ever shifting geopolitical landscape.
Has the once vocal and unconditional relationship lately been masked in neutrality and diplomacy? The hushed doubts and whispers grew louder in the wake of the biggest diplomatic rollercoaster India has faced in a while — the Pahalgam terror attacks.
Russia’s first statement, although interpreted differently by Indian, Russian and Pakistani state media to suit their narratives, was undeniably careful and neutral. President Valdimir Putin offered condolences to the victims of the terrorist attack and also reiterated Moscow’s willingness to step up cooperation with India on the fight against terrorism. So far, so good.
However, political analysts, pointed out at the time that any careful reading of Moscow’s response suggested that India was battling unidentified terrorist groups in Kashmir which may or may not be connected to Pakistan. Notably, since 2019, Russia has also refrained from any direct criticism of Pakistan for its links to terrorism.
Russia-Pakistan relations
India has long counted on Russia as a reliable partner, sourcing its energy and defence needs. The two countries' support for each other goes as far back as the 1950s, when the Soviet Union stood by India on the issue of Kashmir and used its UN Security Council veto in support. Since then the two nations have exchanged back and forth favours with the latest instance being India repeatedly abstaining from voting in a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is because of Russia’s support of India on the Kashmir issue that Pakistan saw little scope of gaining anything by improving ties with Russia. But that was an era back.
There’s no denying that high-level meetings and visits have been the hallmark of Moscow-Islamabad relations since a while now. In 2017, Islamabad joined the Moscow-Beijing led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; an attempt to solidify its regional cooperation. By 2021, Russia and Pakistan had signed a pact to construct a 1,100-km gas pipeline from Port Qasim in Karachi to Lahore. The unlikely association of the two nations drew widespread global attention in February 2022, when then Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan visited Moscow on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making him the first Pakistani leader to visit Moscow in over two decades.
Traditionally speaking, both India and Russia have looked at their relationship as independent of their equations with other global powers. One of the reassuring factors of Pakistan-Russia relations being that the cooperation is traditionally limited to energy, food security, infrastructure and does not include the sale of arms which would amount to Russia crossing the line with New Delhi.
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However, there are a few things India should not let slide.
Notwithstanding the repeated rebuttals from New Delhi, Moscow chose to endorse the US claim that it was President Trump who played a significant role in halting the four-day long flare-up between India-Pakistan. Earlier this month, Yury Ushakov, senior aide to President Putin, said the issue of India-Pakistan came up during a 70-minute call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
“Additionally, the Middle East was discussed, as well as the armed conflict between India and Pakistan, which has been halted with the personal involvement of President Trump,” he said while briefing the media about the phone call.
In geopolitics, good relations with any nation is just diplomacy unless you can rely on them to isolate your enemies. Can India rely on its strong equation with Russia to isolate Pakistan? It doesn’t seem likely at the moment.
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