Ever since Sheikh Hasina was removed as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh last August, India’s security concerns on the eastern front have only multiplied. While China is already a challenge on that side, growing proximity between Pakistan and Bangladesh is an additional worry.
It is ironic that the country that India helped in getting liberated has started turning against it (India) within 54 years. When Bangladesh won independence in 1971, it was believed that the lingual and cultural identity had triumphed over the communal and sectarian identity. Creation of Bangladesh demolished the two-nation theory based on religion and exploded the myth, at that time, that religion cannot be the glue for keeping a country united.
However, with the rising religious extremism in Bangladesh that is reflected in attacks on Hindus and their places of worship, and the growing influence of radical organisations like the Jamaat-e-Islami, seems to have pushed back Bangladesh from a language based nation towards the religion driven country. In such a scheme of things, Pakistan falls closer to Bangladesh than India, even if the two countries are geographically and linguistically far apart, the two main reasons that Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan and became an independent country.
How far the bonhomie between the two countries will last only time will tell, but what is of immediate concern for India is that once a “friendly neighbour” is cosying up with another perennially hostile neighbour. Although India is too strong for both the countries, even if they act together, the concerns do remain.
Unlike the Indo-Pak border, the border between India and Bangladesh is porous. The military-to-military contact between Pakistan and Bangladesh is already building up. The military controlled ISI of Pakistan can conveniently use the Bangladesh route to infiltrate weapons and militants into India.
The political leadership in both the countries, with Mohammad Yunus at the helm of affairs in Bangladesh is also coming closer. Yunus has held several rounds of meetings with Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. India has not shown much interest in Yunus, who in any case is a ‘caretaker time gap arrangement’ only.
India’s another worry is that Yunus is believed to have been picked up and thrust on Bangladesh by the same “western” forces, which have always been hostile towards India. And the same forces were responsible for instigating rebellion against Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founding father of Bangladesh.
The rebellious movement against Hasina was not a spontaneous one. It was meticulously crafted and created over a period. While the students were made the face of the movement, the actual strings were pulled from somewhere else. Added to that was the growing radicalism in Bangladesh for a long time now, which even Hasina failed to take due note of, leave aside curbing it. That the movement was influenced and guided by the radicals was obvious when the students who were supposedly protesting against Hasina’s regime, attacked Hindus, damaged their properties and also their religious places. One prominent Hindu seer is still behind bars and has repeatedly been denied bail.
Bangladesh society has deeply been infiltrated with religious radicalism. Prolonged rule of Sheikh Hasina that lasted for about 15 years caused a lot of anti-incumbency against her, which was exploited by the religious radicals there that eventually led to her removal. The radicals were entrenching themselves even during Hasina’s rule, despite her profound hostility towards them for multiple reasons, including the assassination of her entire family including her father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman.
Imagine if radicals could grow and spread under her rule, how much can they flourish under a friendly and patronizing regime that is in power in Bangladesh right now. Greater the influence of religious radicals in Bangladesh, bigger the problem for India, as it will bring the country closer to Pakistan. The radical influence is likely to grow further over a period of time.
Another major security concern for India is the possible creation of the Pakistan-China-Bangladesh axis, which will of course be hostile towards India and will pose a perennial security threat to the country.
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China is already influencing two other neighbours, Nepal and Maldives, which again is not in the interest of India.
It is high time for India to engage with the Bangladesh government. It is highly unlikely that the current regime may extend any friendly posture towards India, given the country's relationship with Sheikh Hasina, but that should not deter the government here to keep the channels open. Of course there will be a lot of irritants, like India’s refusal to extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh, but still the country has to deal with the neighbour, which may have turned hostile now, but is our own creation.
India can repeat and replicate the Afghanistan methodology. Taliban, who are ruling Afghanistan now, and were hostile towards India in the beginning, are now looking forward towards India for improving relationship, while they have burnt all their bridges with Pakistan, a country that was believed to have always supported and patornised them.
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