By far, sanctions have been the favourite foreign policy tool of the US. More so since President Donald Trump has taken over the Oval Office. But he isn’t the only one to reach out for sanctions.
This week, even as the US President began arrangements for a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the latter signed a decree imposing new sanctions on dozens of companies linked to Russia’s drone industry.
Meanwhile, in the past few weeks, Trump has rolled out intense sanctions even on countries doing trade with Russia. Not new to such measures, Russia’s foreign ministry shrugged off the threats by saying how Moscow had developed a “certain kind of immunity to such measures.”
America all along has relied on sanctions—sometimes as a form of foreign defence and at times as a deterrence or pressure tactic.
Sanctions—the favourite foreign policy tool of nations
Sanctions have been in place against North Korea for several years now, in response to its nuclear activities and ballistic missile-related ambitions. Many of them are in place as part of UN sanctions measures. But despite unilateral sanctions, the country has not been pressured or pushed towards denuclearisation.
Iran and Russia serve as other glaring examples of how sanctions work, but do not introduce any real change.
Russia–the most sanctioned country ever
In 2022, Russia vaulted past Iran and North Korea to become the most sanctioned country ever, with Western countries imposing extensive sanctions on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While sanctions against Russia do not derive from UN measures, they have been unilaterally led by the G7 coalition (the US, UK, Canada, Japan, Italy, France and Germany) and EU (comprising more than 30 countries and half of the global economy). Despite this, China, India, Iran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia did not support sanctions against Russia.
Considering the sanctions were unilateral and piecemeal, they were effective in adversely impacting the Russian economy.
But have they been successful in the long run? The evasion and trade deflection through third world countries limited their impact. The Kremlin replaced the pipeline oil exports to Western countries with tanker-shipped oil to other countries through a ‘shadow fleet.’ However, as per IMF, both Russia’s GDP and disposable incomes of people have been on a decline. After three years of war, Russia’s GDP was 10-12 per cent below pre-invasion levels.
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Even a cursory glance at EU and United States sanctions tracker shows the rising popularity of sanctions as a measure. With entities, nationalities, individuals and regimes, sanctions are consistently on the rise.
Are sanctions effective?
Somewhere between war and diplomacy, sanctions work in a dynamic, complicated and indirect manner. In 2024, a book titled “How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare” explored the impact and efficacy of economic sanctions through Iran, to study whether sanctions helped governments achieve the intended objectives.
Narges Bajoghli, the book’s co-author and professor, Middle East Studies at John Hopkins University, said sanctions work in two ways. “Either they’re supposed to put enough pressure on the regime and targeted state to change its behaviour, or they’re supposed to put enough pressure on society to rise up against the state to then topple it.”
However, Bajoghli calls the sanctions an invisible war that takes place over a long period of time. “Photojournalists can’t take pictures of what sanctions do over time or how it impacts people.”
Analysts have often highlighted the unknown consequences of sanctions by citing the example of Iran. While sanctions did reduce their oil exports, they also consolidated power in government-owned companies that had the resources to evade sanctions. This allowed more money to flow to the government’s coffers and solidified conflict in the region. Also consolidated sanctions have been so difficult to remove that they hardly ever motivated the regimes to change their behaviour.
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Exclusively taking Iran as an example, Bajoghli calls the sanctions complicated, “They work in ways you don’t want them to work and not in ways you want them to work.”
In the meantime, their justification and use continue.
This week, US White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on India was aimed at indirectly pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine. “The President has put tremendous public pressure to bring this war to a close. He’s taken actions, as you’ve seen, sanctions on India and other actions as well,” with the intent to apply “secondary pressure” on Moscow. Again, will they have the direct consequences as intended? Highly unlikely.
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