mutual-reversal-of-fortunes-between-aap-congress-in-punjab

On the face of it, the Aam Aadmi Party has scored an emphatic victory in the Punjab by-elections. It won three of the four assembly segments that went for by-elections, taking its overall tally in the Punjab legislative assembly from 92 to 94 in the middle of the term of its government.

 

It could not have expected better ahead of the Municipal Corporation elections in the state, which are to be conducted within three weeks.

 

The by-election results will definitely make “excellent headlines” for the AAP. But it will do better by not misreading the complete story. Even the AAP insiders agree that too much must not be read from the by-election results as these cannot be taken as the “overall” reflection of the public mood.

 

It is indeed a matter of great celebration for the ruling party to have won two prestigious segments of Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak, where it defeated the spouses of PCC president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa. Both had been elected to the parliament in the General Elections held about six months ago from Ludhiana and Gurdaspur parliamentary constituencies respectively.

 

In both the places, had the Shiromani Akali Dal not opted out from the contest and also not openly supported the AAP, it would have been a comfortable victory for the Congress candidates. But for the SAD it was more important to get the spouses of both the stalwarts defeated and the party managed to get them defeated.

 

In Chabbewal also, it is as much the candidate’s victory, as it is the party’s victory. The sitting MLA from here, Dr Rajkumar Chabbewal was elected to the parliament from Hoshiarpur constituency on the AAP ticket after he defected from the Congress. He got the AAP ticket for his son, Dr Ishan Chabbewal and he won comfortably.

 

While the AAP celebrates an “emphatic victory”, which many may interpret as an endorsement of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, it should at the same time feel concerned over the Barnala defeat, where its candidate lost to the Congress nominee. Barnala is supposed to be the AAP stronghold.

 

It was actually the “mutual reversal of fortunes” for the AAP and the Congress. Congress had three of the four assembly segments in its kitty before the elections, while the AAP had only one, Barnala. Now in the ‘mirror-reversal’ of fortunes, the AAP has won all the three segments that the Congress held since 2012, and lost Barnala, the segment it held since 2017. The AAP’s defeat was caused due to a rebel who was the sitting district president of the party, but was denied the ticket. He contested as an independent and took about 15,000 votes, while the margin of victory of the Congress was just a few thousand votes only.

 

Congress; reversal of fortunes

 

The Congress is looking forward to returning to power in 2027 assembly elections. Most of its leaders believe that with so much anti-incumbency against the ruling AAP and the Akali Dal and BJP remaining divided, Congress is the only option for the people. However, the by-election result must have come as a great shock and setback for the entire leadership.

 

Moreover, it has been a personal loss for both the PCC president Warring, and former Deputy CM, Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, both of whom had retained their respective constituencies since 2012. Randhawa, in fact was elected from here in 2002 also and had lost in 2007. Before that his father Santokh Singh Randhawa represented it twice.

 

One senior Congress leader and a former MP, who has been a legislator for a longtime, avoided contesting the parliamentary elections himself. He was apprehensive that after getting elected to the parliament, it may be very difficult to retain the assembly segment he was representing, in the by-election, although he/his family had never lost from that assembly segment since 2002. He must be feeling vindicated after seeing the fate of Warring and Randhawa.

 

While one victory or defeat does not define and decide the fate of popular leaders like Warring or Randhawa, there is a monetary setback. Both Warring and Randhawa happen to be potential contenders for the Chief Ministership for 2027 assembly elections. Besides, there are Partap Singh Bajwa and former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi. In any case, the by-election electoral defeats in no way will diminish the chances of the two candidates of being in the race for Chief Ministership.

 

BJP fares badly

 

Except for Barnala, where the party candidate Kewal Singh Dhillon got a substantially respectable number of votes, the BJP has fared quite poorly in these by-elections. In the run up to the elections, it had emerged as a “third force” as its former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal had opted out of the race.

 

Party’s Gidderbaha candidate Manpreet Singh Badal was hoping to get support of the Akali voters with the help of his cousin Sukhbir Singh Badal. However, that did not happen as the Akali votes got transferred en masse to the AAP candidate Hardeep Singh Dimpy. Dimpy was himself a former Akali and had left the party just few months before the by-elections.

 

In Chabbewal and Dera Baba Nanak, the party was a distant third getting just a few thousand votes in each of the two segments.

The party must have realised that it will have to go a long way to make rural inroads.

 

Good consolation for Shiromani Akali Dal

 

The Shiromani Akali Dal, once the dominant player in electoral politics in Punjab, was watching from the fence. Although it did not take an “official position” other than having opted out, it did convey open signals for support to the AAP candidates in Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak assembly segments, where it wanted to get even with Warring and Randhawa respectively. Both these leaders are diehard and fierce critics of the Akalis.

 

By ensuring that the Akalis did not cast a single vote in favour of the BJP, the Akali leadership has succeeded in making a point that the saffron party will need a partner in Punjab and it just can’t make it on its own. After getting 19 percent votes in the parliamentary elections in the state, six more than the Akalis, the BJP was feeling overconfident about its electoral prospects in the state.

 

In any case, the by-election results will not make any difference to Punjab politics. One thing however is sure that the Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann will feel more “confident and comfortable” as well, after having fared quite badly in the parliamentary elections. But his comfort level must not extend beyond a limit, as these results are not any reflection of neither the performance nor the popularity of his government as there were varied factors which determined the final outcome.  The real test will be in 2027 only.