north-versus-south-the-great-demographic-divide

Following a familiar pattern, three of the five southern states have recorded a significant decline in birth registrations over the past decade, as compared to the national average.  

Tamil Nadu led the southern group with a sharp 2pc drop and Kerala followed closely with an 18 pc decline, according to the vital statistics of India, based on the Civil Registration System (CRS) 2022.

 

Karnataka registered a modest 2.9 pc decrease, while Andhra Pradesh managed a small 4.1 percent increase. Only Telangana bucked the regional trend with robust 17.9 percent growth.

 

These southern state patterns contrast sharply with India’s overall demographic trajectory, where the country recorded a 13.1 pc increase in registered births over the decade, rising from 2,24,82,951 in 2013 to 2,54,39,164 in 2022.

 

The southern region’s combined birth registrations fell from 41,09,739 in 2013 to 40,69,526 in 2022 – a regional decline of 40,213 births, representing a 1 pc drop, while the rest of India experienced substantial growth.

 

Tamil Nadu leads this regional decline with a dramatic 21 pc drop in birth registrations over the decade, falling from 11,85,397 births in 2013 to 9,36,837 in 2022 – a reduction of exactly 2,48,560 births.

 

This decline represents one of the steepest in the country and signals the state’s advanced position in India’s demographic transition.

 

Kerala presents an even more pronounced pattern of demographic transition, with birth registrations declining by 18 pc over the decade from 5,36,352 in 2013 to 4,39,742 in 2022 – a reduction of 96,610 births.

 

Uniquely, among southern states, Kerala peaked in the very first year of the data series (2013) and has experienced consistent decline throughout the entire decade.

 

The state’s decline has been remarkably steady. The state’s 9.9 pc drop from 2018 to 2022, representing a decline of 48,432 births, indicates this trend has continued unabated even in recent years.

 

Kerala’s experience reflects its status as India’s most demographically advanced state, with the decline totalling 96,610 births over the full decade.

 

Karnataka presents a more nuanced trajectory, with a modest 2.9 pc overall decline from 2013 to 2022, dropping from 10,68,671 births to 10,37,182 births – a reduction of 31,489 births.

 

The state peaked in 2016 with 11,07,258 births and currently sits 70,076 births below that peak, representing a 6.3 pc decline from its highest point.

Telangana’s upward trend

 

Telangana, India’s newest state, stands out as the region’s demographic success story, recording a remarkable 17.9 pc growth over the decade, rising from 5,96,424 births in 2013 to 7,03,362 in 2022 – an increase of 1,06,938 births.

 

This makes Telangana the best-performing southern state in terms of growth rate.

 

The neighbouring Andhra Pradesh shows moderate growth of 4.1 pc over the decade, rising from 7,22,843 births in 2013 to 7,52,403 in 2022 – an increase of 29,560 births.

 

National scenario

 

The southern decline contrasts sharply with explosive growth in other regions. Uttar Pradesh recorded a near 40 pc growth since 2013.

 

Bihar also saw a sharp rise from 16 lakh in 2013, nearly doubling in the decade. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh showed gradual growth, while Maharashtra remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations. These states, mostly from the north and central regions, have maintained high fertility rates.

 

UP dominates nationally with 54,43,003 births in 2022, representing 21.4 pc of the national total. The state grew from 38,95,924 in 2013 to 54,43,003 in 2022 – an increase of 15,47,079 births, representing 39.7 pc growth over the decade.

 

Bihar recorded the most extraordinary growth, surging 92.6 pc from 15,96,494 births in 2013 to 30,71,603 in 2022 – an increase of 14,75,109 births. The state’s growth was particularly dramatic in later years, jumping from 22,41,089 in 2018 to 30,71,603 in 2022.

 

Other high-growth states include Uttarakhand, with 89.4 percent growth, rising from 1,43,242 births in 2013 to 2,71,320 in 2022 – an increase of 1,28,078 births. Madhya Pradesh grew 8.1 pc from 16,55,691 to 17,89,365 births, adding 1,33,674 births over the decade.

 

Declining birth rates

 

Multiple states across India joined the southern region in experiencing decadal declines. Sikkim recorded the steepest percentage decline at 28.1 pc, falling from 8,589 births in 2013 to 6,177 in 2022 – a drop of 2,412 births. Himachal Pradesh declined 24.9 pc, dropping from 1,21,232 to 90,988 births, losing 30,244 births over the decade.

 

Delhi experienced a significant decline, falling 18.8 pc from 3,70,000 births in 2013 to 3,00,350 in 2022 – a reduction of 69,650 births. Gujarat declined 11.0 pc, dropping from 12,66,047 to 11,26,522 births, losing 1,39,525 births over the decade.

 

Goa recorded a 20 pc decline from 21,667 to 17,326 births, while Odisha fell 11.6 pc from 7,65,388 to 6,76,394 births – a decline of 88,994 births. Punjab dropped 10.7 pc from 4,48,409 to 4,00,579 births, losing 47,830 births over the decade.

 

Regional patterns and implications

 

Large northern states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, continue to dominate absolute numbers and drive national growth. These four states alone accounted for 1,47,66,111 births in 2022, representing 58.1 pc of India’s total birth registrations.

 

Union territories generally maintained stable numbers, with variations reflecting their smaller populations. Chandigarh registered 27,169 births in 2022, while Puducherry recorded 34,987 births. The newly created Ladakh union territory registered 3,067 births in 2022.

 

The birth registration data reveals India’s position at a crucial demographic crossroads, with different regions experiencing varying stages of demographic transition.

 

Southern states’ experience of peaking early in the decade and subsequently declining mirrors global patterns observed in developed regions, while northern states continue expansion phases that are likely to moderate in coming decades.