operation-sindoor-done-and-dusted-what-next

By Brig RPS Kahlon, VSM (Retd)

 

India went to bed on May 6, slightly confused by the advisories for rehearsals of air raid civil defence schemes in selective areas border districts. The nation as well the enemy were lured into the elaborate ruse of a relatively meek response to the terrorist strike in Pahalgam, limited to diplomatic missives, military posturing of missile firing and manoeuvres, and of course practice of passive air defence measures.

 

While the nation slept past midnight, a 25-minute carnage of targeted kinetic punitive strike on nine different terrorists training facilities housed in POJK and Pakistan was flawlessly executed by the Indian Armed Forces.

 

The nation woke to the news of Operation Sindoor, launched to avenge the gruesome targeted killing of 27 Hindu tourists at Pahalgam on May 22, a fortnight ago. It was a successful precision strike on the facilities of JeM and LeT.

 

Intent of Operation Sindoor

 

Nine hours after the strike, the Indian Foreign Secretary flanked by an Army and an Airforce officer, give a prepared, concise, professional brief on the justification of the strike and the target selection. It was stated that the strike was a justified response against the terrorist network. It was not aimed at Pakistan Army and ensured no Pakistan civilian collateral damage. The strike was pre-emptive and aimed to deter future terrorist strikes. It was stated in no uncertain terms that Operation Sindoor was non-escalatory in intent.

 

Onus on Pakistan

 

There was no elaboration on the damage assessment of the strike, nor an indication of the vectors or the type of precision ammunition employed. The signal was clear: India had to retaliate. India has retaliated in a responsible, justified manner, against legitimate terrorist training infrastructure. It was now up to either the rational professional Pakistan strategists to limit the escalation or allow the mad, irrational, fundamentalist, minority cabal of the military to lead them into another unwinnable conflict.

 

Vindication of the hurt national pride

 

The single greatest immediate impact of Operation Sindoor is that it has not only assuaged the collective hurt pride of the nation, but has also united the nation as one in the universal condemnation of the terrorist action. The praise of the professionalism and competence of the Indian Armed Forces for successful orchestration of another proportionate, effective, retaliatory punitive strike, has likewise been widespread and effusive. The national patriotic flavour of India is certainly upbeat.

  

Operation Sindoor plus?

 

It is to the credit of the Indian political leadership and the higher defence organisation that all instruments of power have been wielded in concert to corner the Pakistan Army establishment. The Indian establishment has stayed ahead of the curve, both in retaliatory matrix and control of the narrative. The intent to strike with increasing potency and into the depth of Pakistan with each successive Pakistan-sponsored terrorist strike has also been demonstrated. It has also been demonstrated that the punitive measures against Pakistan are not restricted to targeted kinetics alone. Water wars, economic, trade and diplomatic coercion is all on the cards. This intent is buttressed by actions on ground and demonstrated capability.

 

Playing out the escalatory dynamics

 

Yet there is a need of caution and cool heads, as neither nation is out of woods as yet. The Pakistan reaction cannot be predicted. The plausibility of the controlled escalation spiralling out of control is a clear and present threat. India has been deliberate in its target selection, their precise engagement and subsequent elaboration on damage assessment, possibly to give Pakistan Army a face-saving way out, without unreasonable escalation. The Pakistan Army, however, finds itself into a commitment trap of an appropriate muscular response for consumption of the Pakistan public to maintain its persona of the nation’s saviour, and could be forced into executing a post-Balakote like riposte.

 

Pakistan’s Hobson choice

           

The onus to de-escalate now is on the Pakistan Army, and by extension the Pakistan government. It has the option of doing a face-saving retaliatory strike or try to take the higher moral ground by unilateral de-escalation, because of international pressure. 

 

In terms of probability, the former is more plausible than the latter. When and if it occurs, we can expect the narrative of the Pakistan riposte and a logical Indian response to be tightly controlled by either side for consumption of the domestic audience. Truth, where suitable, will be understated but visually explicit (images of Indian strikes on Bahawalpur for instance), where uncomfortable will be twisted to show the perpetrator in favourable light.

 

The information warfare and perception management will be more if not as intense as the kinetic strikes. Pakistan unfortunately will lose on both accounts because of inferior conventional capability, and the higher moral ground India would continue to occupy, as they continue to justify the strikes/ counter strikes/ retaliation as responsible, proportional, non-escalatory and pre-emptive, as already established.

 

LOC ceasefire, the unfortunate collateral damage

 

Irrespective, an active LOC is reality, and with the cross LC firing, escalated to artillery duels there is likely, it may be projected as the required muscular response to Operation Sindoor. That would be unfortunate because civilian population on either side of the LOC would be the unfortunate victims.

 

The likely long-term fallout

 

War is politics by another means, but best resorted to after all other means fail. We need to keep our powder dry, and suitably respond to any escalation in short term to ensure deterrence. In the long term, there is a need to bring to bear all other instruments of the state power to bear on to ensure compliance. We should be prepared for intensification of water wars, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion against Pakistan for India to secure her security needs. We are in for a long haul with an incorrigible neighbour like Pakistan.

 

To conclude, Indian security establishment has proven itself competent in dealing with the situation responsibly and aptly thus far. We should repose faith in our leadership, which has so far given a good account of themselves. The dynamics of the Pakistan riposte and the Indian response would unfold over the next few days. Logically, both sides should look at options which avoid war. Whichever country’s leadership chooses to do a Zelensky on itself, will forever be vilified for posterity, which should be reason enough to de-escalate and avoid war right now.