The sudden and spontaneous US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites have come as a surprise to many people across the world, particularly when US President Donald Trump had himself given Iran two weeks for “complete surrender”. He did not even wait two days to launch the attacks, which came on the second day of the warning. The attacks may have come suddenly and spontaneously, but Trump’s unpredictable record suggests that there should be nothing surprising about it. He rarely says what he means.
During his campaign speeches, Trump would often say that Ukraine’s war with Russia was none of America’s business. Before that, during his previous term, he would always rue American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, he was the main architect for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan that formally came into effect when he demitted office after losing the 2020 Presidential elections.
During his current ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) campaign, he insisted on America first while making it clear that the country will not get involved with anybody’s wars. He practically stopped almost all aid to Ukraine and made the European Union rethink its defence strategy after dropping enough hints that America under his Presidency will not be very much interested in NATO either. The treatment he and his Vice President, JD Vance, meted out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House is still fresh in the memories of people.
Even during the India-Pakistan hostilities, Trump showed extra interest, making frivolous claims that he stopped the war between the two countries. He would make this claim about a dozen times before finally realising that he was trying to bite more than he could chew after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it categorically clear that India does not accept any third-party mediation to resolve issues with Pakistan or, for that matter, with any other country.
Till today, when Trump struck Iran, it was widely perceived that he wanted to be seen as a peacemaker, probably with a wish to win the Nobel Peace Prize. It was rather clear that after Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, returned from a luncheon with Trump at the White House, Pakistan proposed his name for the Nobel Peace Prize. Much to the shock and embarrassment, Trump’s planes rained bombs on Iran in less than 12 hours of its Nobel Peace Prize recommendation.
Then why did Trump resort to such a sudden and spontaneous attack on Iran, when he had given a two-week deadline? One reason, which is a universally acknowledged fact, is that the strong Jewish lobby in the US makes its writ run in any and every administration, be it that of the Democrats or the Republicans. So much so, it “forced” Trump to go ahead with its attack and strike Iran’s nuclear facilities where it could develop a nuclear bomb.
There are already strong doubts about whether Iran was preparing for a nuclear bomb. US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard had testified before Congress that there was no information that Iran was pursuing the nuclear bomb. She has, however, retracted her statement, saying it was taken out of context and that Iran could build up a nuclear bomb.
Also read: US changed the course of the conflict - how will Iran respond?
The second reason for Trump’s sudden strikes against Iran is that this may force the country to come to negotiations and avoid war. Iran, so far, has refused to negotiate on abandoning its nuclear programme. There is a possibility that the Trump administration believes that a weakened Iran may be better to deal with. Iran, indeed, has suffered heavily in the US strikes, including reported massive damage to the Fordow nuclear site, believed to be highly protected, where Iran was enriching uranium for a nuclear bomb.
Trump is not only faced with a strong opposition against getting involved in any war with Iran, from the Democrats, but also from a section of the MAGA supporters. He hopes that it will be a brief strike and Iran may be forced to come to a negotiated settlement. So far, Iran has not dropped any hints about resuming negotiations, which it had abandoned ahead of the strikes. The country is likely to adopt a belligerent stance, particularly after the attacks.
This leaves no option for Trump but to carry out further strikes to weaken Iran militarily. This is not fraught without risks. Iran has already said that Americans and American installations will be its rightful targets. America has so many bases across the region, which can become soft targets for Iran. That only points to a prolonged confrontation. Iranian regime, as of now, will not bow out meekly or surrender completely as Trump wants and hopes. Trump may have opened up a warfront that may not be so easy to close so soon and without collateral damage.
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