preventing-full-fledged-escalation-remains-mutual-option

Any thaw in relations between India and Pakistan, which are already engaged in a conflict, may sound unimaginable at this stage.

 

The conflict, right now, threatens to escalate into a full-fledged war despite India’s clear and categorical stance, right from the beginning, that its action was only aimed at punishing those responsible for the Pahalgam terror attack.

 

India launched specific, precise and targeted operations, hitting the terror training camps in places like Bahawalpur, Muridke, Kotli etc. The strikes killed about 100 militants and their sympathisers and supporters. Jaish-e-Mohammad led by Masood Azhar got a severe hit.

 

Azhar has been designated a terrorist by the United Nations for his involvement in multiple terror attacks in India. Jaish-e-Mohammad, the terrorist organisation he heads, was also involved in the February 2019 Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel.

 

Indian missiles were on target hitting the specific place where Azhar lived along with his family. By sheer luck or in anticipation of the attack, he had apparently moved to some different place and he escaped, while 10 of his family members and four associates were killed. Pakistan does not have any explanation for protecting someone who is a UN-designated terrorist.

 

Second main target was the Lashkar-e-Toiba headed by Hafiz Saeed in Muridke. Lashkar was directly involved in the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam. Lashkar proxy, Resistant Front, had owned up the responsibility for the attack. However, it backed out later, apparently realising the consequences it would lead to.

 

After the Indian strikes, there were many casualties in Muridke headquarters of the Lashkar. That the target had rightly been hit and there were some prominent casualties was proved with the presence of several senior Pakistan army officers at the funeral of those killed. They reportedly include one of the masterminds of the Kandahar Hijack, which led to the release of Masood Azhar.

 

After the Pahalgam terror attack India vowed and resolved to hit at the culprits and the masterminds, deep inside Pakistan where they were being offered safe haven. Indian armed forces hit the specific targets without any civilian or military casualties on the intervening night of April 6 and 7. India owned up the strikes and also clarified that it did not want any escalation.

 

However, the Pakistan army resorted to unprovoked firing on civilian populations at many places. In Poonch, they killed about 10 people. This is a clear provocation. This was followed by the Pakistan army’s attempt to target military installations in about 15 north-western cities of India by drones and missiles. All of these were neutralised with the integrated air defence grid already in place in different parts of the country.

 

India has retaliated in the same measure. In Lahore, the air defence mechanism has been completely smashed. Besides, there have been drone and missile hits on Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium also. Pakistan Cricket Board has shifted the local cricket matches to Karachi.

 

After trying to manage the narrative on the first day of India’s strikes, Pakistan has realised on the next day only that it can neither sustain nor survive in a long-drawn escalation.

 

Pakistan Prime Minister and Defence Minister had both suggested that in case India does not escalate, Pakistan would not.

 

However, everyone knows that things are not in their hands and it is the Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir who calls the shots. And it is also a fact that Munir follows the diktats more from his Chinese masters than his political bosses in Pakistan. Even if the Pakistan PM and the Defence Minister want to prevent any sort of further escalation, that would not mean much as real the control lies with someone else.

 

As the conflict and confrontation between the two countries continue to intensify, some behind the scene activities are already in place. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister claimed that the national security advisors of the two countries had already got in touch with each other. When the Indian Foreign Secretary was asked during a press briefing about it, he did not deny it, but said he did not have any information about that.

 

The United States has established contact with both countries, with President Donald Trump saying he was close to both of them. Iran’s Foreign Minister and senior Saudi Arabian officials have also started negotiations with both the countries. The European Union countries have also asked for restraint on both sides.

 

There are other factors also which offer a silver line for truce. Pakistan cannot survive a long-drawn escalation at any cost. It realises that India has a greater advantage over Pakistan. Besides, its economy is crashing. On April 28, it applied for $1.6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

 

Despite enjoying a decisive advantage, India would also not like to remain entangled in a conflict with any country even when it has a clear advantage over it. India is looking forward to massive investments after “Trump tariffs” have led to an exodus of investors and manufacturers from China to India. No investor would like to invest in a conflict zone.

 

At the same time, India’s military entanglement will serve China’s purpose the best. That is the reason China is going out of way to support Pakistan in its conflict with India. A compliant Asim Munir is serving Chinese purpose the best.

 

While India has made it categorically clear right from the beginning that its purpose is not escalatory, at the same time, it has kept all options open. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told an “all party meeting” that the country’s purpose was not military escalation but only to strike the terrorist camps. At the same time, the government has also conveyed it in no ambiguous terms that if India is pushed into a confrontation, it will hit back in the same measure. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made this assertion in presence of the Iranian Foreign Minister on Thursday.

 

Prime Minister Modi also held a meeting with secretaries in different ministries to review the situation in anticipation of any escalation. The Government of India has been in constant and continued touch with the chief ministers of the border-states to remain prepared for any eventuality in the event of a full-scale escalation, which though, may not happen eventually, even if the ground-level atmosphere seems like that of a long-drawn, full-fledged war.