rebel-akali-dal-can-upset-the-applecart-in-punjab

The formation of a separate Akali Dal headed by former acting Akal Takhat Jahthedar Giani Harpreet Singh will no doubt pose an existential challenge to the parent party headed by Sukhbir Singh Badal, as it is likely to upset the applecart of other political parties as well.

 

Reports from the grassroots suggest that the ‘rebel’ group is being received well by those who remain alienated and disillusioned with the parent party. This may have considerable impact on the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in the countryside where the disillusioned Akali supporters had switched over to it in the 2022 Assembly elections.

 

As of now, the ‘rebel’ Akali Dal is getting the support of those workers and cadres, who were already opposed to the parent party and Sukhbir. There have not been any switchovers from the parent party to the new party so far. Those who remain committed to Badal, continue to remain with him. Right now the supporters of the two parties remain completely regimented.

 

At this stage, the odds appear to be stacked against Sukhbir Badal. In the past whenever there was a rebellion in the Akali Dal, the party managed to quell it. This was because late Parkash Singh Badal was quite active. Obviously, he was more experienced and shrewder than his son.

 

When another Akali stalwart and the then SGPC president Gurcharan Singh Tohra revolted against the senior Badal, he managed to take along many senior leaders, including some sitting ministers. Despite that Tohra was not able to make any dent on Badal’s hold on the party.

 

There were two main reasons for that. One, Badal was the chief minister at that time. He had complete hold over the government, which helped him retain the control over the party. Plus, it was the Bharatiya Janata Party government at the Centre. The BJP that time stood firmly with Badal leaving hardly any chance for Tohra to make any impact or cause any substantial damage to the parent party.

 

Also read: Is Akali Dal really ready for a Dalit president?

 

Compared to that, the position of Sukhbir Badal is quite weak. He is not in power. Rather, his party has been reduced to a “single seat” in a house of 117. He does not have any alliance anymore with the BJP. Rather, the political grapevine says that the rebel Akali Dal is being popped up and supported by the BJP. Sukhbir is also faced with a hostile party government in the state.

 

The BJP may or may not be supporting the rebels right now, but it will keep its options open about its future alliance, if any. The party will obviously go with the stronger and dominant group. The BJP has an advantage as none of the two Akali factions can align with any other party, like the Congress or the AAP. The only other party than the BJP with whom they can align is the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has a very marginal presence in the state, that too restricted to a few Assembly segments in the Doaba region.

 

Besides the two rival Akali factions led by Sukhbir Badal and Giani Harpreet Singh, there is the “radical section” among the Akalis represented by jailed MP from Tarn Taran Amritpal Singh and Faridkot MP Sarabjit Singh. While Amritpal is a radical preacher, Sarabjit Singh is the son of one of the assassins of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. These two leaders have their respective pockets of influence with a potential to disturb the political equations in about two dozen Assembly segments. And they will not impact the Akali Dal alone, but also the AAP and the Congress.

 

While the 2022 Assembly elections in Punjab were four-cornered between the AAP, Congress, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal, the 2027 elections will be more multi-cornered with one rebel Akali faction and the radical groups also joining the fray, thus making the contest more interesting and unpredictable.

 

As of now, there does not appear to be any possibility of any strong alliance between the BJP and the Akalis. This is the only possible formation as of now as the AAP and Congress do not have any potential alliance partners in Punjab and they will have to fight on their own.

 

Also read: AAP lands itself in ‘land pooling’ cesspool

 

Although there is buzz that the rebel Akali Dal might align with the BJP ahead of the Assembly elections, as it is believed to be enjoying the saffron party’s support and patronage, nothing can be concluded with certainty at this stage. Much will depend on the BJP’s acceptability in the countryside. In 2022, the BJP was treated as a “pariah” because of the three Central farm laws, even after the Central government withdrew these. That hostility is not there anymore, yet the BJP has not managed to make any deep inroads in the rural areas.

 

But the party does remain quite strong in the urban areas. In the last general elections in 2024, although the BJP could not win any Parliamentary constituency in Punjab, it led from a respectable 24 Assembly segments across the state and all of these fell in the urban areas. And in case it manages to stitch an alliance with any of the Akali groups, its position will be consolidated further. The party has for sure managed to neutralise the earlier hostility it faced in the rural areas among the peasantry.

 

Till the recent past, the Congress was considered to be the only challenger/ alternative to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, which is facing a lot of anti-incumbency across the state. It was further aggravated by its ill-advised ‘land pooling policy’, which has now been withdrawn. But the negative impact it created is more or less similar to that created against the BJP after the Central farm laws. Although the BJP government also withdrew the three laws with Prime Minister Narendra Modi apologising to farmers, the party still could not overcome the hostility. It takes time for the tempers to cool down and the AAP will have to wait.

 

The political situation in Punjab at this time is such that 2027 can be anybody’s game, rather it may be nobody’s game. Under the current circumstances, Punjab may throw up a hung verdict as there are going to be so many players. While earlier it was thought to be a fight between the AAP and Congress, now there is a third angle of a possible BJP-Akali (whichever faction) alliance also having come into the reckoning. In case of a hung house with the ‘BJP-alliance’ having a reasonable number of legislators, and the BJP’s central leadership’s knack of forming governments against all odds, nothing can be ruled out in Punjab about 2027, although it is too early to predict anything.