Three recent terror attacks in the Jammu region of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir appear to be the outcome of a change in strategy of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan to shift the focus from Kashmir valley to the Jammu region, most of which has remained peaceful and largely untouched by the terror activities.
Besides, it is an attempt aimed at sabotaging peace in the union territory ahead of the assembly elections, which are necessary to be conducted by September this year.
The terrorists involved in these attacks are believed to be non-locals who have infiltrated from across the border/line of control.
Summer is the ideal time for the ISI and Pakistan to push the infiltrators into the state as the snow melts down and the hilltops are relatively less difficult to cross.
As the summer has set in, there is the likelihood of the ISI trying to push more and more infiltrators into Jammu and Kashmir. Although the borders remain completely sealed and the security agencies remain highly alert, a few infiltrators do manage to cross over once in a while.
Most of these infiltrators end up losing their lives as their life span, once they manage to cross over to this side alive, is just a few days.
While there is no reason for any alarm, these incidents are certainly a cause of concern.
There is a long international border along Pakistan where repeated attempts by the infiltrators pushed by Pakistan keeps going on. Earlier, the Border Security Force had also detected a tunnel apparently built to infiltrate terrorists to this side.
The ISI appears to have changed its strategy and wants to target the relatively peaceful Jammu region.
While in Kashmir terrorist killings are taking place once in a while even now, most of these are target killings, there has not been any major terror attack reported from the valley, like the one on a bus carrying the pilgrims to the holy shrine of Vaishnodevi.
It is not clear whether the terrorists specifically targeted the shrine-bound bus or if they fired randomly on a bus without knowing that it was carrying the pilgrims. If it is a deliberate attack, then it is obvious that there is a local connection to the terror attack.
Jammu and Kashmir Police have maintained that the militants are mostly non-locals who have infiltrated from Pakistan or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. However, in Kashmir, in most of the targeted killings, the militants involved are locals only.
The ISI appears to be cautious of the fact that in case it causes increased terror activity in Kashmir, this will discourage tourists from the rest of India from travelling to Kashmir. Kashmir’s economy has boomed during the last few years after the abrogation of Article 370.
It is after a long time, about three decades, that Kashmir saw a revival of the tourist industry.
The ISI will not take any risk to annoy and alienate the local people in Kashmir by disrupting the tourist flow, hence it opted to target the Jammu region.
Another important aspect of the attacks is their timing. These three attacks within three days were carried out immediately after the conclusion of the 2024 General Elections.
The first attack, on the bus carrying pilgrims, which left ten dead, took place on the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi took oath for his third term.
The second attack was carried out in a border village, about ten kilometres from district Kathua, while the third attack was carried out on a temporary army check post in district Doda.
It may also be a message to Prime Minister Modi, who is rightly attributed with having restored normalcy in Kashmir.
The historic decision to abrogate Article 370 has had a psychological impact in Kashmir as it dealt a fatal blow to the secessionist and separatist psyche. The timing of attacks is important since these took place immediately, rather these corresponded with Modi's oath for a third time.
Although there is no reason to apprehend any large-scale terror incidents as the security forces and the local police have done a great job, of eliminating the militancy, almost completely, such sporadic incidents like the ones in Reasi, Kathua and Doda cannot be completely ruled out.
The terrain in the Reasi and Doda area is such that the terrorists can manage to hide for a while since there are thick forests.
It becomes difficult to spot one or two people in such a place before or after the incident.
It is a tough call for the security forces to chase the terrorists, but still, they are chased and killed, as it is always a matter of time only.
The government’s immediate concern will be conducting the peaceful and incident-free annual Amarnath Yatra to the holy cave of Lord Shiva in the Himalayas. The governments of the time have always conducted the Yatra peacefully; the recent incidents should make the security agencies more alert though.
While such isolated incidents may not be ruled out from happening in future, the fact is that the back of the militancy has been broken.
Given the elections to the assembly to be conducted before September this year, Pakistan and the ISI will try its worst to sabotage these. More so because of the record polling that took place in Kashmir.
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