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The North Korean leader finds himself particularly emboldened by the uncertain political climate of its southern neighbour, a loyal ally in Russia and non-existent diplomatic equation with the U.S

North Korea’s ballistic missile launches on Monday, while they did come too soon, they certainly did not come as a surprise. Not even to the US military which condemned the act and called on the centralised totalitarian state, “to refrain from further unlawful and destabilising acts.” 

The US military further affirmed America’s “ironclad” security commitment to South Korea and Japan. But international sanctions and possible repercussions have seemingly been the least of North Korea’s concerns. 

Only a couple of days before the launches, its leader Kim Jong Un  emphasised the importance of strengthening naval power during his visit to oversee the construction projects of naval vessels and nuclear submarines in the country. North Korea’s state media also reported how Kim said that nuclear armament was crucial to the sovereignty of the country.  

North Korea’s multiple ballistic missile launches towards the Yellow Sea have been the first since President Donald Trump took office in January. Geopolitical analysts could see the developments leading up to the missile launches, especially since the past couple of weeks. Notably, North Korea’s missile launch comes as a response to the military drills between South Korea and the United States. Even though the joint drills were paused following an accidental bombing, North Korea went right ahead with flexing its nuclear muscles. 

What’s worrying for the U.S and its southern neighbour is that verbal statements have often come backed with actions. In yet another clear display of strained relations, last month South Korea criticised North Korea for dismantling a facility used for hosting meetings between families separated after the Korean War. 

On March 4 this month, Kim Jong Un’s sister had reiterated North Korea’s stance with threats of escalated provocations in response to the arrival of the U.S aircraft carrier in South Korea. She also slammed U.S military activities as “confrontation hysteria” and called South Korea “a stooge of the U.S.” 

The state media reported that Kim’s sister accused Trump of showing “its most hostile and confrontational will” through U.S-South Korea military drills. The warnings, time and again, were a clear writing on the wall that North Korea would amp up weapons testing activities. In the past as well as recently, its leader Kim Jong Un has maintained his confrontational stance. 

 

North Korea continues with aggression 

The United Nations Security Council, while many have lately questioned its effectiveness, has slapped multiple sanctions on North Korea since 2006. Despite the sanctions, Pyongyang has continued with the development of ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Not stopping merely there but it has continued with weapons tests with little regard for diplomatic repercussions or fallouts. The latest missile launches are in sync with its weapons tests activities and come close on the heels of the firing of strategic cruise missiles in February. 

Can Trump prevail upon North Korea? Not likely

Even though Trump and Kim Jong Un got along well during Trump’s first term, it is likely their equation will rekindle or make a difference. During his first week in office this year,, Trump referred to the North Korean leader as a “nuclear power,” also saying during an interview broadcast that he would again “reach out” to Kim Jong Un. Maybe the US President made the statement while recalling, if not completely relying, on his last meeting with Kim. 

In 2019 the two leaders had met during an impromptu historic meeting at the Korean Demilitarized Zone making Trump the first US President to cross the border into North Korea. However, back then Trump could not get North Korea to give up its pride and prized possession — its nuclear weapons. It is much less likely that Trump can convince Kim to even give up nuclear testing now, let alone the weapons. 

A lot has changed for North Korea in the past four years. Apart from the fact that it is militarily and politically stronger, North Korea also comes armed with a new friend in Russia’s Vladimir Putin, wherein the mutually beneficial exchange of food and fuel happened for weapons and soldiers for Putin’s war in Ukraine. In a development that even worried the West, recently the North Korean leader wished Putin on his 72nd birthday, calling the Russian President his, “closest comrade.” 

Kim Jong Un sees an opportunity 

Then there’s the shift in South Korea itself. North Korea, with frequent regularity, hits out at its neighbour. These verbal jabs and lashes have further increased since the now-suspended South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial in the country in December 2024.

 

Political upheavals in South Korea have particularly left the North emboldened. 2025 is expected to be a particularly turbulent year for South Korea given its current political climate. Its domestic upheavals and uncertainty all play into the hands of Kim Jong Un, who has publicly designated his neighbour as a “hostile state.” The current missile launches further point out that the rhetoric has not been empty but rather ominous.