The Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress have equally high stakes in the upcoming assembly elections. Four states of Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry are going for elections in the month of April.
For Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in particular, these elections are more important, as his party will need to win at least one state to ensure his credibility. Congress stands a fair chance to win Assam and Kerala, where the incumbent governments have been in power for two consecutive terms and the Congress is the main challenger. If the party manages to win both, it will be a phenomenal achievement. If it manages to win one, it will still be face saving. But losing both the states, will be difficult to defend.
While the BJP rules Assam and has a coalition government in Puducherry; West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are ruled by non-Congress opposition parties, the Trinamool Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Left Democratic Front, respectively. The Congress supports the DMK government in Tamil Nadu but does not share power there.
The BJP has direct stakes in West Bengal and Assam, while the Congress has direct stakes in Assam and Kerala. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP remains a marginal force, although it has aligned with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP has been desperately trying to wrest Bengal from Mamata Banerjee since 2016. It posed a serious challenge to her in the 2021 assembly elections, but Mamata still managed to retain the state. This time, being in power for three consecutive terms, she is not only fighting against a more formidable and more experienced BJP, but also against 15 years of anti-incumbency. At the same time, she is not a leader known to give up and would be fighting right till the last vote is cast and counted.
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While the national leadership of the Congress has a soft corner for Mamata for obvious reason of her putting up a brave fight and holding forte against the BJP, the state Congress leadership is mostly opposed to her and would be the happiest to see her lose.
Same is the case with the left parties, which still do have a reasonable presence in the state, where they ruled continuously for 25 years. The left cadres continue to be fiercely opposed to Mamata to the extent that they don’t mind supporting the BJP to defeat her.
Mamata continues to bank on the 27 per cent Muslim voters who have been voting en bloc for her party, mainly because they believe that only the TMC can defeat the BJP. Although one of her estranged MLAs Humayun Kabir has formed a separate party aimed at targeting the Muslim community votes, it is difficult to say how much he can cut into Mamata’s support base. Will he be the Badruddin Ajmal of Bengal will only be known on the day of counting on May 4.
In Assam, the fight is between the BJP and Congress. However, the BJP continues to be placed in a very strong position despite having been in power for two consecutive terms. Chief Minister Himanta Sarma Biswa sounds confident about returning to power. His stringent and aggressive posturing against the Congress has so far paid off.
In Assam, like in Bengal, there is a significant number of Muslim voters. There are about 34 per cent Muslim voters in Assam. Unlike in Bengal, where the Muslim voters go along with the TMC, in Assam, the Muslim votes get divided between the Congress and the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Badaruddin Ajmal. The performance of the AIUDF will have a direct consequence for the BJP and Congress fortunes. If the AIUDF manages to retain the Muslim votes, it will be a direct advantage for the BJP.
The most important state for the Congress in these elections is Kerala, where the party sees a chance to return to power after 10 years. Going by the performance of the party in the parliamentary and local bodies elections, there are strong chances that the Congress-led United Democratic Front may be able to replace the CPM-led Left Democratic Front.
However, even during the 2019 parliamentary elections the Congress-led UDF had won 18 of the 20 parliamentary seats, but lost in the assembly elections. In the 2024 general elections, the Congress-led UDF again won 18 of the 20 constituencies. After that, the party’s performance was phenomenally good in the local bodies elections also. It is like “now or never” for the Congress in Kerala.
In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK led by MK Stalin appears to have an edge over the AIADMK-led NDA alliance. The alliance may not seem to be very formidable; it still remains in a position to spring a surprise.
For the BJP retaining Assam and winning, rather wresting West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee will be an ideal achievement. Same way, for the Congress winning Assam and Kerala will be the ultimate target, which is very much achievable.
These elections are promising to be the “do or die” battle for both the national parties.
For Rahul Gandhi, the stakes are particularly high, since the Congress will need to win, at least, one state to lend credibility to his leadership. Mallikarjun Kharge may be the Congress president, but Rahul is its leader everyone in the party acknowledges. So it will be his test and trial.
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