Since returning from the SCO summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tone on the Ukraine conflict has changed altogether, as he looks and sounds more confident than he did before arriving in China last Sunday.
Not only has he threatened to target the potential Western-backed peace troopers, but he has also questioned the credibility of Ukrainian President Zelensky as a leader who holds the power to sign peace accords. Although he said he was willing to cooperate with the United States on a range of economic partnerships, if it agreed to do so.
It may sound like just another trade offer between the two contrasting nations, but there is much more to the picture than meets the eye.
Putin’s smart war diplomacy
The Russian President is playing the game of diplomacy so smartly that he was able to sow the seeds of discord between the US-NATO and EU backers of the Zelensky regime.
The US officially pulled back its support in April over the fact that Washington was getting nothing from Ukraine in return for the dollars it spent on Ukraine.
Putin easily managed to take away support from Kyiv when it needed it the most, leaving an entire Eastern front vulnerable in Ukraine.
In a very short span, Russian forces have overtaken several hundred square kilometres of land in the Sumy and Odessa regions.
Europe’s reluctance
Further, several EU countries are reluctant to act against Russia, knowing very well that they lack the capabilities of fending off Russian forces or even stopping Russian missiles without US air defence systems that Washington wishes to use for self-defence.
Ukraine’s days without the United States appear to be numbered. The UK is struggling with economy and inflation while France is heading towards a no-confidence vote in the coming days. This was also noted when EU chief Ursula von der Leyen was rebuked by the German foreign minister over her statement that the EU, along with the US, was preparing to send troops to Ukraine.
German foreign minister Johan Wadephul said Ursula was probably talking about her imaginary force. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni also expressed similar reservations about the EU chief’s statement.
Why has the Russian president changed his tone on Ukraine?
Putin, a former KGB agent, who aspires to recreate the glory of the Soviet Union, has understood the West’s weakness. He knows the West lacks the fighting spirit, plus they will never enter a fight, considering the destruction Russian missiles could bring, as they did in Ukraine.
Putin’s morale and military support come from North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while attending the first-ever tripartite summit in Beijing, has promised all the military and weapons support to Russia, which it lacked in 2014 when Russian forces took Crimea. It was because of the North Korean Special Forces that Russia took back its Kherson region from the Ukrainian forces.
Also read: How SCO is a threat to US-led global order and why it matters
According to some of the Western sources who have covered the deployment of the North Korean troops, Pyongyang has given Russia a force that hunts down enemies like a pack of wolves – raw, vicious, and motivated.
Financial support from China
The second and most important backing of Putin comes from his all-weather ally, China, which has provided Moscow with the much-needed shot in the arm. China has provided major financial support to Russia while it is fighting against Western-backed Ukrainian forces.
The indivisible greater Eurasian security
While the majority of the nations attended the SCO and China’s victory day parade, only three nations and their three leaders caught the most attention of the international community—Chinese president Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For the first time, the three leaders shared a common stage and platform, signalling much deeper cooperation in trade, defence, and collaboration on broader security for the Eurasian belt.
It was, of course, Vladimir Putin who set the platform for the Xi and Kim meeting, possibly negotiated by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during his visit to Pyongyang right before the SCO foreign ministers meeting in China.
What does China want?
China wants fair diplomatic and political relations with the rest of the world, with the United Nations being the centre and a powerful governing body. It also wants a balanced trade and economic cooperation based on equality with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the strong governing body, rather than the nations that resort to bullying global markets, causing economic uncertainty.
Also read: Is Jinping planning a new world order?
It also wants to pursue global diplomacy based on multilateralism and a multipolar world order with a strong emphasis on the unipolar global south, especially Eurasia and South and Southeast Asia.
China’s Taiwan ambition
The trio now aims to build a trilateral cooperation against the US and its allies in South Asia. Pyongyang providing military support in return for tech transfer is possible if China decides to annex Taiwan. While Russia will make sure that not a single Western nation comes to support, even if the United States gets involved, which is not very likely to happen.
The developments shaping international geopolitics are evolving at a rapid pace. The trio of North Korea, China, and Russia are possibly aiming to create an anti-West military alliance with indivisible security and impenetrable deterrence, something that the West collectively cannot overcome.
World diplomacy is standing on a pivot, and it is turning to the Global South.
By Waseem Ahmad Ganie
Follow us
