As monsoon showers settle over parts of India, the political temperature is on the rise again. Counting of votes is underway for five crucial Assembly bypolls spread across Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal and Kerala—an electoral skirmish that holds significance far beyond the numbers at stake.
The BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and regional players have much to prove in these mid-term contests, which come as a prelude to full-fledged Assembly elections next year. While some seats were vacated due to resignations or deaths, each constituency presents a complex interplay of political alliances, defections, and prestige battles.
Twin battle in Gujarat
Where the ruling BJP faces twin battles, the Visavadar seat is the one to watch in Gujarat. The party hasn’t held this constituency since 2007. The vacancy emerged after Bhupendra Bhayani, elected on an AAP ticket in 2022, resigned and joined the BJP in 2023. In a symbolic move, the BJP has fielded Kirit Patel to reclaim lost ground. The Congress has named Nitin Ranpariya, while the AAP has bet on former state unit chief Gopal Italia, hoping to consolidate anti-incumbency sentiment.
In neighbouring Kadi, a Scheduled Caste-reserved seat in Mehsana district, the vacancy arose following the death of BJP legislator Karsan Solanki earlier this year. The BJP has chosen Rajendra Chavda to defend the seat. Meanwhile, Ramesh Chavda is contesting on a Congress ticket, and Jagdish Chavda represents the AAP, turning the contest into a triangular one, marked by familiar surnames but differing loyalties.
Also read: EC denies bias in awarding Kaliganj bypoll surveillance contract
Congress banks on Priyanka’s prestige in Kerala
Further south, the Nilambur constituency in Kerala has taken on the air of a prestige battle for Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The seat lies within her Wayanad Lok Sabha segment, and she campaigned with visible vigour ahead of the bypoll.
The by-election was necessitated by the exit of two-time MLA OV Anvar from the Left bloc to the Congress fold. Now contesting as an Independent, Anvar's political shift has stirred the waters. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has fielded M Swaraj, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has nominated Aryadan Shoukath. The BJP, meanwhile, has placed its hopes on Advocate Mohan George.
Family legacy and fierce contests in Bengal
In West Bengal, the Kaliganj bypoll is being viewed as a referendum on the Trinamool Congress’s local strength following the death of MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed in February. His daughter, Alifa Ahamed, is carrying the party’s banner in an emotional and strategic bid to retain the family’s political legacy.
The BJP has fielded Ashis Ghosh in a constituency that falls under Nadia district and remains politically volatile. The Congress, aligned with the CPI(M), has chosen Kabil Uddin Shaikh. As Bengal gears up for Assembly polls next year, the Kaliganj contest is being seen as a curtain-raiser for a bigger showdown between the Trinamool and the BJP.
AAP aims to hold ground in Punjab
In Punjab, the Ludhiana West seat has become a high-stakes contest for the ruling AAP, especially after its recent losses in Delhi. The seat fell vacant following the tragic death of MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi in January, reportedly due to a self-inflicted gunshot.
Sanjeev Arora is AAP’s candidate to defend the seat, while the BJP has nominated Jeewan Gupta. Congress has brought forward its veteran face Bharat Bhushan Ashu, hoping to exploit internal fractures in the AAP. Additionally, the Shiromani Akali Dal has entered the fray with Parupkar Singh Ghuman, making this a crowded and competitive contest.
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