The Indian Super League (ISL) has entered a crucial juncture as the four semi-finalists prepare for their decisive second-leg clashes, with Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC holding the advantage after first-leg wins.
According to the official ISL website, Bengaluru FC head to Goa boasting a two-goal cushion, while Jamshedpur FC carry a slender 2-1 lead into their encounter against League Shield winners Mohun Bagan Super Giant in Kolkata.
Though the semi-final ties are only halfway through, past results provide useful insights into how the fixtures may unfold. Since its inception, the ISL has adopted a two-legged semi-final format, which has produced no shortage of drama and unpredictability.
From Kerala Blasters FC's 2014 extra-time triumph over Chennaiyin FC to Mumbai City FC’s stirring comeback in 2023–24, the league’s knockout stage has delivered memorable spectacles.
With both Bengaluru and Jamshedpur winning at home in the first legs, the record of teams carrying leads into away fixtures offers reason for cautious optimism. Out of 16 semi-final ties conducted under the home-and-away format (excluding the 2020–21 and 2021–22 seasons played in bio-secure bubbles), ten have been won by teams who played away in the first leg.
This suggests that playing the second leg at home — an advantage earned by higher league placement — has generally proved beneficial. However, history also favours those who win the first leg, regardless of venue.
Of the 20 semi-finals played in the ISL to date, 10 have been won by teams victorious in the first leg. On just four occasions has a side lost the opening fixture and managed to overturn the deficit to reach the final.
These figures put Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC in a favourable position, statistically giving them a 71 per cent chance of progressing. However, when factoring in the advantage of playing the second leg at home — now enjoyed by their opponents — their chances reduce slightly, to 56 per cent.
Further, recent trends suggest a growing importance of home fixtures in the return legs. In the last two ISL seasons, all four semi-finals were won by teams playing the second leg at home. Among those, only once did the home team win the first leg.
Mohun Bagan Super Giant, who find themselves trailing by one goal, will look to repeat their 2023 feat when they overturned a first-leg loss against Odisha FC in the return fixture in Kolkata. A similar resurgence on Monday could keep their title hopes alive.
FC Goa, however, face a steeper climb. They trail Bengaluru FC by two goals, and history is unkind to teams with such a deficit. On five previous occasions, teams leading by more than one goal in the first leg have always reached the final.
While past trends provide valuable indicators, they are by no means definitive. As the old adage goes, football is won on the pitch, not on paper — and the upcoming semi-final second legs promise plenty of high-stakes action.
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