The problem with the Congress is that it has not been able to find any vision or agenda on which it could build up a narrative that would catch the mass imagination. Right now, the party’s single agenda is “to be against whatever Modi/BJP stand for”. And the BJP surely does not necessarily stand for the wrong things, as the Congress believes and wants to make everyone believe. At times, they may be doing the right things as well. After all, the BJP has returned to power for the record third consecutive time and the Congress has lost correspondingly for the record third time. Yet the Congress opposes and contradicts the BJP on everything.
The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has picked up a few issues against the Centre like his stringent opposition to conducting of the NEET, the National Education Policy, three-language formula and now the delimitation. None of these issues is exclusively that of the BJP. Whether the NEET, the NEP, the ‘three-language’ formula or the delimitation are not the BJP’s brainchild nor do they benefit the BJP in any way.
It is because the BJP is in power at the Centre that it has to implement these policies, which are either mandated by the constitution or have been mutually agreed upon across the country. Take, for example the NEET, it has been formulated to improve the medical education in the country and ensure merit in admissions. Medical education is something where merit cannot be compromised. A common entrance test across the country would definitely improve the competition.
The three-language formula was originally introduced in 1967 when it was the Congress government at the centre and also in Tamil Nadu. The DMK led a fierce campaign against it, adapting an aggressively defiant position. The way DMK is treating the BJP now, it used to treat the Congress the same way then, something the Congress leadership must realise and understand. Besides, the Congress must not discount the fact that the DMK always had a soft corner for the LTTE, which assassinated Rajiv Gandhi in a suicide bomb attack. But Congress leadership, particularly the Gandhis appear to have forgiven the DMK leadership for that, obviously for political expediency.
Latest issue that the DMK has picked up is the delimitation, which has been mandated by the constitution. The DMK has been trying to turn it into a “north-south” confrontation, while none exists. For the DMK it is purely an “election stunt”, as the state goes for assembly polls next year. By suggesting that the “north” will get to dominate in the event of a fresh delimitation, which of course will be based on the universally accepted principle of population proportion, Stalin is trying to carve out an “imaginary north”, while trying to create an “imaginary south” of the five states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala.
Stalin’s argument is that the fresh “delimitation” will give disproportionate numerical advantage in the parliament to the “north”, which he suggests consists of everything, other than the five southern states. The rhetoric narrative of the DMK, which is being peddled by most of the other opposition, creates an impression that it is a fight between the most populated state of Uttar Pradesh and the “south”. Had it not been the BJP government in UP, Stalin, for sure would not be taking the stance he has taken now.
The Congress must beware of Stalin's agenda, particularly on the “delimitation”. His interests are confined and restricted to Tamil Nadu alone. His “north-south” narrative suits him there. He may also be able to capitalise on it, particularly after the national debate he has succeeded in generating on the “delimitation”. He has no stakes outside Tamil Nadu, not even in the southern states, leave aside the rest of the country.
For the Congress the stakes are very high. Congress remains the principal opposition party and a potential alternative to the BJP in the states in “Stalin’s north”, like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and Chhattisgarh, together called the “Hindi heartland”. The party also has stakes in Maharashtra as well. In case the Congress buys Stalin's argument, it runs the fatal risk of losing the ground in the Hindi heartland.
In the overall terms also, Stalin’s argument is flawed. The numerical advantage in the parliament of the supposed “north” has not led to any political disadvantage for “Stalin’s south” or discrimination against it. First, Stalin’s north, like his south, is not a politically homogeneous entity. It is not ruled or controlled by any single political ideology. Recent General Elections results in Uttar Pradesh are an example that the “representative state of the north” sent more MPs belonging to the parties which are aligned to Stalin’s DMK than the BJP, which he is afraid of.
Unlike in the US, in India it is not the “winner takes it all” system. In the United States, the party getting the majority number of seats in a particular state, “bags all the seats” in the final count, which is not the case in India.
Also, Stalin’s South has produced two Prime Ministers of the country and many Presidents for the Republic, which blasts his imaginary apprehensions of “northern” dominance in the event of delimitation.
The Congress will do well not to buy Stalin’s agenda, lest it proves fatal for it. Opposing the BJP for the sake of opposition will not take the party anywhere. It should have learnt it by now.
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