more-than-bjp-victory-it-is-aap-s-defeat-with-massive-implications

The emphatic victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Delhi assembly elections after 27 years is indeed a matter of great celebration for the saffron party, at the same time, it is a devastating moment for the Aam Aadmi Party, which has been in power in Delhi for last twelve years. The defeat may pose a challenge to the party's survival as well.

 

The BJP has formed the government at the centre four times and still was not able to break into the national capital, despite having a massive presence of cadres and supporters. First it lost to the charismatic Sheila Dikshit and then to an equally charismatic Arvind Kejriwal. And that was probably the reason that despite the national capital being the party’s stronghold, it was continuously losing here, as it had not been able to build up strong challengers against Ms Dikshit and Kejriwal. The party did not have a face in Delhi.

 

Otherwise nothing explains the dichotomy, till now, between the parliamentary and assembly elections. It was an electoral paradox that despite winning all the seven parliamentary seats in Delhi in 2014 and 2019, the BJP lost badly to the AAP in the assembly elections, which were held within less than a year. In 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, the BJP could win 3 and 8 seats respectively in a house of 70.

 

People of Delhi in the previous occasions had made a clear and conscious choice that while at the centre they wanted Modi as the Prime Minister, in Delhi, they wanted Kejriwal as the Chief Minister. People here are politically very conscious as compared to other places and did draw a line between the centre and the state politics. 

 

This time however, the BJP did manage to succeed in capitalizing on Prime Minister Modi’s name and charisma. There were multiple factors for this as compared to the previous elections. Compared to 2025, Modi was at the peak of his popularity in 2015 and 2020, having emphatic victories to his credit where he led his party to absolute majority. This time, Modi was relatively less popular with his party falling short of absolute majority on its own.  

 

But despite that his name and magic worked in Delhi. Plus, there was the impact of the Ram Mandir, as well. Also, one underlying factor, that is not much noticed, is an element of sympathy and regret among people over Modi having been denied full majority in the 2024 General Elections. That seems to be working now for the party. It worked in Haryana, Maharashtra and now in Delhi also. 

 

There was also a lot of anti-incumbency against the AAP and Kejriwal. The AAP had actually won three previous elections and was fighting the fourth one. Besides, the image of running an honest and “corruption-free” government got dented with the reported “excise scam” that saw Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia landing in jail also. People started doubting the AAP and equating it with other parties after the AAP government rescinded the “excise policy” that landed it in trouble. 

 

Then there was the “super-luxury” house, called ‘Sheesh Mahal’, by his opponents, which Kejriwal built for himself, which fell flat on the face of his previous claims that he will live like an ordinary person in a two-bedroom flat and will not drive any expensive cars. Now he travels in big convoys of luxury cars. This was not only highlighted by the BJP, but even the Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, during the elections. This did seem to click with the people of Delhi. 

 

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On the governance front also, the AAP had nothing much to lay claim over except for the freebies like the free water and free electricity. The much-touted ‘Mohalla Clinics’ and much propagated “revolution” in education seemed more of hype than reality. Also, it is established beyond doubt that the freebies have an expiry date for delivering electoral dividends.

 

Delhi’s roads are in the worst condition. Pollution has touched dangerous levels. Yamuna is more polluted today than it was ten years ago. People started remembering Sheila Dikshit’s time and recalled the progress she had brought to Delhi like flyovers and metro-rail. Compared to that the AAP had nothing to its credit. 

 

Also, people appeared to be fed up with the perennially confrontationist attitude of the AAP in general and Kejriwal in particular towards the centre. Comparisons were again drawn with Sheila Dikshit, who maintained a decent and dignified working relationship with the BJP when it was in power for six years at the centre during her ‘15-year’ tenure as the Chief Minister. 

 

The AAP’s defeat in Delhi is going to have serious implications for the party in the national capital. It may be very difficult for the party to hold together. Five years is a long time in politics. Added to that, the AAP does not have any particular ideology that can make people stick together. The AAP has been a successful “working arrangement” between some people, whose ‘idea not the ideology’, as they projected none, clicked with people for a decade. Over due course it lost hold over the minorities and Dalits. While the Dalits are still divided between the AAP and the BJP, the minorities appear to have opted for the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s robust and unambiguous espousal of their cause. 

 

Delhi defeat is likely to have a massive adverse impact for the party’s prospects in Punjab also. Although the elections there are due in 2027, the Delhi defeat will divest the AAP of the claims that it is “invincible” after coming to power. There is already a lot of anti-incumbency against the AAP in Punjab. There is also a lot of disenchantment and disillusionment among the party legislators there. AAP will have to do a tough job to hold its flock together in Punjab particularly when the flock is too big. 

 

Conversely, the AAP defeat in Delhi has come as a morale booster for the Congress in Punjab. More than the BJP leadership anywhere in India, it will be the Congress rank and file in Punjab that would be celebrating the “BJP-victory” in Delhi. The BJP, as of now, is in no position to make any impact in Punjab. The only option, right now, left in Punjab is the Congress. That is the reason the Congress went all out against the AAP in Delhi with an eye on Punjab. 

 

The Congress leadership in Delhi, despite a strong case put up by party treasurer Ajay Maken, was initially not very keen to go out against the AAP. Maken was made to cancel a previously announced press conference where he was supposed to “expose” Kejriwal’s “anti-national” credentials. 
It was the Congress leadership from Punjab, which strongly argued with the national leadership and finally prevailed over it, that defeating the AAP in Delhi was very important for the Congress in Punjab. Otherwise also, for the Congress it was inconsequential whether BJP won or the AAP won, as it had no stakes in Delhi. 

 

Congress would have had another problem if the AAP had won. Kejriwal would not forgive the party. It had already rallied around some INDIA partners like the Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress with it. Kejriwal would have started cornering the Congress at the national level. Besides, Kejriwal was posing and projecting himself in the role of the challenger to Prime Minister Modi while pushing aside Rahul Gandhi. A fourth consecutive victory in Delhi would have emboldened Kejriwal beyond anyone's imagination. 

 

While the figures would be worked out whether Congress had any contribution towards the AAP’s Delhi defeat, one thing is for sure, that the party would be happier than the BJP over the results. Not only has one of its prime challengers been removed from the scene, it will also be relatively easy for the party to rebuild itself in the national capital over the AAP ruins. The AAP has mostly taken away the Congress voters, while the BJP has still maintained its hold over its core constituency. 

 

The AAP runs the risk of going the Bahujan Samaj Party way. Its situation is likely going to be worse than that. The BSP was an ideologically driven party and had an assured core support base. If a party like the BSP, having won absolute majority on its own in a state like Uttar Pradesh can implode and vanish away, the AAP is at a greater risk. 

 

AAP does not have an ideologically motivated cadre. It also does not have an inspiring leader. Kerjiwal emerged out of alienation of the masses with the system. He did not provide any alternative although he promised one, which people expected him to do. Instead, he and his party behaved the same way like other political parties. The “difference” Kejriwal had promised was never seen anywhere. If there was any, it was only for the worse. 

 

Kejriwal, personally made no difference either. Apart from getting carried away with the power, he established a firm control over the party by getting the constitution changed and making himself the “lifetime” convener of the party. He converted a party that was formed on a modern and progressive outlook, like any other family driven regional party, no better than the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad Yadav or Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav. 

 

Kejriwal has a humongous task of holding the party together, not only in Delhi, but also in Punjab as well. In Punjab he may face additional challenges also as Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann will feel “empowered” over the party's defeat in Delhi. The only consolation for Kerjiwal about Punjab will be that Mann does not command much hold over the party’s legislators, who will look up to Delhi’s directions and guidelines only.

 

Mann and his supporters in Punjab may also feel the pinch, as now the entire “pressure”, of all types, will be on the Punjab government. How much Mann is able to bear the pressure and accommodate an uprooted party in Delhi in Punjab, will really trust his manoeuvring skills. He can, at least, relax for a while that his “bosses in Delhi” will have to depend a lot on his support. But again that is a matter or reciprocity only. It is going to be a battle of spaces for AAP in Punjab now, after Delhi got closed for the party with February 8 results. 

 

To build something from nothing is much easier than to rebuild something over the ruins. That is why Kejriwal’s job will be a lot more difficult in the coming days. The voices of dissent which remained subdued till now, within his party may get vocal and more pronounced after the Delhi verdict. Also, Kejriwal will have to deal with two hostile rivals, the BJP and the Congress, which may disagree on all major things and issues, but may end up at a common cause against the AAP. For Kejriwal, bracketing them together, as he tried to do during the election campaign that the Congress and the BJP had a secret understanding to defeat the AAP, will be no consolation. He may have some sympathisers in the INDIA alliance, but as long as he does not have his own firm ground, even the allies and friends may not be of much help.