A well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression on Saturday and is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm on October 27. It is forecast to make landfall the following evening between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, near Kakinada in coastal Andhra Pradesh. The cyclone, which is likely to be named Montha, will pack wind speeds of 90–100 kmph, gusting up to 110 kmph.
Under the influence of the weather system, several parts of Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha are set to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall from October 25 to October 29, according to the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai.
This will be the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal since the onset of the northeast monsoon, which is the lifeline for Tamil Nadu. At 8:30 am on Saturday, the RMC reported the system was centred about 440 km west-southwest of Port Blair, 970 km east-southeast of Chennai, 990 km southeast of Kakinada, 970 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 1,040 km south-southeast of Gopalpur.
“It is likely to move nearly West-northwestwards, intensify into a Deep Depression by October 26 and into a Cyclonic Storm over Southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal by October 27 morning,” the RMC said in its weather bulletin.
Continuing to move north-northwestwards, it is highly likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, around Kakinada, during the evening or night of October 28 as a severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 90–100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph.
The RMC warned that squally weather with wind speed reaching 35–45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from October 25. This is expected to increase to 45–55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph from October 27, with gale-force wind speeds reaching 60–70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from October 28.
Although the cyclone is set to make landfall in Andhra Pradesh, several parts of Tamil Nadu, such as Villupuram and Chennai, continued to receive intense spells of rainfall on Saturday. Independent weather blogger K Srikanth noted that there is increasing convergence among weather models regarding this disturbance intensifying into a cyclonic storm and making landfall over the Central AP coast early next week.
“Unless there is a significant shift in convection to the west, rainfall impact from Coastal TN may be marginal. Real-time tracking will be the only way to judge possible rainfall impact over the next two to three days,” he added.
Also read: Odisha on high alert as cyclonic storm nears
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